Knicks vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Pick Today | NBA Betting Preview (Thursday, April 11)

Knicks vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Pick Today | NBA Betting Preview (Thursday, April 11) article feature image

Knicks vs. Celtics Odds

Thursday, April 11
7:30 p.m. ET
Knicks Odds
-112 / -108
Celtics Odds
-112 / -108
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Celtics on Thursday, April 11 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Knicks head to Boston to take on the Celtics as they look to secure home court in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. With both teams having differing levels of motivation for this contest, let's get to my Knicks vs. Celtics pick and prediction.

New York Knicks

The Knicks will be without Julius Randle for the rest of the season as he underwent successful shoulder surgery this past week. In his absence, they have been carried by Jalen Brunson to the 3-seed in the Eastern Conference.

The 3-seed is an advantageous spot to be considering you can avoid the Boston Celtics until the Conference Finals and there is certainty in who you play in the first round of the playoffs rather than waiting for the winner of the 7/8 matchup.

The Knicks will be putting forward their best effort in this game.

The lineups with Brunson, Anunoby, and Hart without Randle have been incredible. The team has a +25.9 net rating to go along with a 126.3 offensive and 100.5 defensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

The offense is impressive but the defense is absolute nails. They are incredibly physical while dominating on the glass to limit their opponents' second chance opportunities and it has paid dividends.

Brunson himself has been an engine for the team as well. Without Randle, he has averaged 31.1 points, 7.1 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 30 games.

His points plus assists line is set at 35.5, a number he has exceeded in 59% of the non-Randle games (1 game vs Cleveland he played 1 minute) including four straight games. This is an over I'm absolutely taking.

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Boston Celtics

The Celtics have a litany of players on the injury report: Jrue Holiday, Xavier Tillman, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum are all on the report. It would be surprising if they all played but even if they do, their minutes have often been managed, especially in the fourth quarter of games.

Since Boston clinched the overall No. 1 seed, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis have not played in the fourth quarter. The remaining starters have barely seen the floor either with Tatum (4.0), Brown (2.7), and White (0.6) seeing their minutes significantly managed.

The Celtic' fourth quarter minutes leaders are Pritchard (12), Tillman (10.4), Hauser (10.2), and Svi Myhailiuk (8.9). Even if their starters play in this game, we should not expect them in crunch time.

Since they clinched, Boston still has a +2.5 net rating but it craters to -4.2 in the fourth quarter. Given their current rotations, it is advantageous to fade them there.

When their starters (Tatum, Brown, Jrue, Porzingis, and White) have been off the floor this season, the team has a +1.3 point differential in 164 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. Those lineups also appear almost exclusively in blowouts where neither team is making a concerted push towards anything besides the final whistle.

Knicks vs. Celtics

Betting Pick & Prediction

Tonight, the Knicks should be able to take care of business as the team with clearly more to play for. It would be one thing if Boston had not shown their hand regarding their fourth quarter rotations but they seemingly want to keep giving their players reps early in the game but not have them play their full allotment of minutes.

This is in direct contrast to Thibs who is running his players for extended minutes as they push to secure strong playoff seeding. I'll grab the Knicks on the full game but definitely will play them in the fourth quarter line as well.

Picks: Knicks -2.5 (-110) & Knicks 4Q ML (-125)

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