Suns vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, Predictions | NBA Betting Preview (Wednesday, March 27)

Here's everything you need to know about Suns vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, Mar. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Phoenix Suns travel to the Mile High City to face the defending champs on their home court. The last time these two faced off was earlier this month as the Suns got the better of the Nuggets in overtime 117-107, even without Devin Booker.

This time, Bradley Beal (finger) and Jusuf Nurkic (ankle) may be at risk of missing Wednesday’s game for Phoenix.

For Denver, Aaron Gordon (foot) and Jamal Murray (ankle) skipped the game against the Grizzlies on Monday, but my guess is they’ll play in a revenge spot Wednesday.

Find my Suns vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA betting preview below.

For Phoenix, the question all year has been whether or not it can stay healthy enough to do some damage in the playoffs. Here we are with Beal at risk of missing his 28^th game on Wednesday with the Suns seemingly unable to find a rhythm with their big three healthy.

Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Beal have played just 31 of 71 games together for a total of 628 minutes, according to NBA Advanced Stats. When they’ve played, they have an elite Offensive Rating of 123.5 and +8 Net Rating.

I doubt Beal or Nurkic will play tomorrow based on the fact that neither practiced Tuesday, and I’m not surprising anyone by saying their absence would be a detriment for the Suns based on both players’ contributions when healthy. But even looking at this matchup, Beal and Nurkic are the two Suns who get to the rim at the highest rate, which is where the Nuggets can be exploited based on their tendency to give up shots at the basket.

The Nuggets have been dominating since All-Star Weekend as they have made a complete turnaround compared to their play after the All-Star Break last season. They’re 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS since returning to play, which is significantly better than last season when the Nuggets finished 12-11 SU and ATS, as they coasted to the playoffs and the No. 1 seed despite the uninspired play.

With the Thunder and Wolves nipping at their heels, the Nuggets appear to be making a concerted effort to maintain homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, and it doesn’t look like they’ll be letting off the gas anytime soon.

A big part of Denver’s success has been its starting five of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Murray and Gordon. That lineup has played the most minutes after the break for a +14.9 Net Rating.

That same lineup has also played the most overall this season (895 minutes) for a +13.5 Net Rating. Outside of the Milwaukee Bucks' starting five, it’s the best starting lineup in the league. The mismatch between starting fives to begin this game will be noticeable.

This is a smash spot for the Nuggets, and as you may be able to tell, I like them to do some damage early in this game. The Suns' most used lineup without Nurkic or Beal is with Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, Drew Eubanks, Durant and Booker. That lineup has a -7.5 Net Rating, and if those five start, the Suns could be easily exploited early on. Phoenix is also just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 first quarters and 3-7 on the road.

On the other end, the Nuggets have motivation after losing outright in the last head-to-head matchup, even despite the Suns missing Booker for that game. In games where the Nuggets lost their last head-to-head matchup, they’re just 9-11-1 ATS this season, but if we look at just the first half, they’re 14-7-1 ATS and 65-34-3 since the 2020 season.

More recently, the Nuggets are 7-2-1 ATS at home in the first half and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. Given the lineup advantage and the first-half trend favoring the Nuggets, I’ll take their first-quarter and first-half lines as I expect them to come out firing against a Suns team that will likely be playing shorthanded.

Pick: Nuggets 1H Spread (.75u) | Nuggets 1Q Spread (.25u)