Trust the System: Over/Under Matches in Hawks-76ers, Mavericks-Wolves
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid. Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
- One of our Bet Labs Pro Systems has two matches tonight on Hawks-76ers (7 p.m. ET) and Mavericks-Wolves (8 p.m. ET).
- See the filters and record on the trend below, which identifies over/under value due to money and spread percentage disparities.
One of my favorite tools here at The Action Network is Bet Labs, a database that allows you to query all kinds of situations going back over a decade.
Want to know how double-digit underdogs have performed in road back-to-backs? What about how many times the over has hit in division games when a majority of the money is on the under? You name it — you can test it. And create and save systems based on your tests.
We also have Pro Systems, which are ones we’ve identified that have been historically profitable. I’ll walk through one today, which has two matches on over/unders for tonight’s slate:
- Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
Since 2015, this system has gone 247-205-6 (54.6%) against-the-spread, good for a 6.5% return on investment (ROI). This season, it is 31-27 (53.4%), good for a 4.2% ROI.
Here are the filters for the trend:
This system identifies games in which there is a higher percentage of money than tickets on the over, which is indicative of sharp action. Further, this sharp action has caused the total to move between 1-4 points toward the over.
Note that the backtested record on this trend is based on the closing line, which is compelling. That means sharp money is identifying a juicy over, the market is moving to try to adjust for the sharp money — and it’s still hitting at a 55% rate and producing a solid ROI.
As noted above, this system is currently matching on the over in Hawks-76ers and Mavericks-Wolves, which have money vs. bet differences of 35% and 28%, respectively. The former game has already moved by a point; the latter has increased by 3.5.
Notably, the over is 24-17 in 76ers games this year, including 17-11 when they’re favorites. In the other game, the Wolves have been over machines lately, exceeding the number in nine of their last 10.