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Raptors vs. Magic Game 4 Betting Preview: Toronto Is Undervalued on the Road

Credit:

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43)

Game 4 Betting Odds: Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic

  • Spread: Raptors -5.5
  • Over/Under: 207
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Raptors Lead 2-1

>> All odds as of Saturday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


After a surprising (maybe not so surprising) Game 1 loss, the Raptors have rebounded for two straight. Can they make it three? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

Did you know? The Magic are going through a scoring and shooting drought at the exact wrong time. In Games 2 and 3, Orlando shot below 40% from the field and under 30% from beyond the arc. That’s the first time this season the Magic have shot under both thresholds in consecutive games. – Evan Abrams

The Raptors survived a late scare from the Magic in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead but failed to cover the 5.5-point spread on the road — a common theme for Toronto in the playoffs.

In franchise history, the Raptors are 35-47-3 (42.7%) ATS in the playoffs and just 18-34-2 (34.6%) in the Kyle Lowry era (since 2013-14). Since that time, the Raptors are 3-9 ATS when listed as a favorite after a straight-up win in the playoffs, failing to cover the spread by 5.7 points per game. – Abrams

As Evan noted, the Raptors have struggled as favorites after a straight-up win in the playoffs, but that is a small sample. If we look at all playoff teams after a win that are favored on the road in their next matchup, they have gone 91-74-3 (55%) ATS since 2005. Bigger sample, better results … expect the Raptors to benefit from positive regression. – John Ewing


Locky: How I’m Betting Game 4


Well, look at that… I (we) loved the Raptors in Game 3 coming back off the big win, and they managed to make it as dramatic (and depending on the number you got, excruciating) as possible. The point is: Toronto was firmly in control of that game throughout, and Game 4 should be no different. There are not any adjustments to be made here. No magic elixir for… the Magic.

When you look at the series understanding that Game 1 featured extreme outcomes for both teams and that Orlando STILL almost lost, that should tell you what “average” games between these teams are supposed to be. That is, not nearly as close. If Khem Birch, Wesley Iwundu and Michael Carter-Williams are playing bench minutes for a team, a word to the wise: that team is not going to make it very far in the playoffs. I like the Raptors again on Sunday. — Ken Barkley


Moore: Why I’m Betting the Raptors

It says a lot that the Raptors got an absolutely pitiful performance from Kawhi Leonard in Game 3… and still controlled the game, leading throughout. The Magic had their chances, but the Raptors defense has simply figured out how to contain them.

They’re forcing Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon to beat them, and those two players aren’t ready to do so. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam has been the best player in the series and Marc Gasol ate Nikola Vucevic’s lunch in the post for three games.

It really, truly was just that the Raptors can’t win Game 1s. They’ve solved their puzzle and will be on their way to the second round and a showdown with Philadelphia very shortly.

Getting another short number is ideal here, and I’m very much in on the Raptors’ point total over, trusting that just as they’ve solved Orlando’s offense, they’ve figured out how to get their offense going as well. The Raptors put the foot down in this one on their way to a gentleman’s sweep back in T-Dot. – Matt Moore


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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