Raptors vs. Pacers Betting Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Can Anyone Slow Down Toronto?
Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Lowry (7) of the Toronto Raptors dribbles the ball as Victor Oladipo (4) of the Indiana Pacers.
- The updated betting odds for Friday's Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers matchup makes the Pacers a short home favorite (spread: -1) with the over/under set at 218 points.
- The Pacers were actually one-point underdogs in this game until around 5 p.m. ET.
- How are our experts betting this tight matchup? Below, they'll detail their picks and analysis to help you lock in your bets.
Raptors at Pacers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Pacers -1
- Over/Under: 218.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
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It’s been 26 days since the Toronto Raptors last lost an NBA game. They’ve won 12 games in a row and were two narrow losses away from a 16-game win streak. Over that span, they rank second in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and are No. 1 in Net rating.
So can they be stopped? The Indiana Pacers came the closest on Wednesday before the Raptors stormed back to win in the second half.
Our experts analyze the betting angles of tonight’s matchup and Pacers’ chances of breaking the streak.
Betting Trends to Know
The Raptors this season have been profitable to bettors, going 27-22-1 ATS. But most of that value has come in Toronto, as they’re just 6-8-1 ATS as underdogs. They’re 6-9 straight-up in that spot. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 12-10-3 at home and 19-14-3 as favorites this season.
Matt Moore: Does Familiarity Breed Value?
You want a good example of how data teaches you that your ideas are stupid?
I had a running theory for a few years that it was tough to beat a team twice in a week. They’re familiar with your actions, pissed off about the last loss, and extra motivated. Especially if it’s a home and home and they lost the away game. The thing is, though, that theory doesn’t track at all.
Since 2016-17, teams playing at home having lost to their opponent within a week are 65-68-4 (48%) against the spread. When they’re a dog in those matchups, they are 21-31-1 (40.4%) ATS. And when the team in that spot is over .500 they are 24-48-2 (33%).
The Pacers should have won against the Raptors earlier this week. They outplayed them for the duration, and were blatantly fouled on their final possession multiple times. The Pacers are really good, but the Raptors have been so lights out in big spots this year, I’m going to switch it up and risk being wrong twice in a week in the same matchup.
The Pick: Raptors -1 (spread has since flipped to Raptors +1)
Bryan Mears: Victor Oladipo Raises Questions
Bettors seem to be evenly split in this Eastern Conference matchup. The Raptors are getting 53% of the bets and 51% of the money. The public is on the over, though, which is getting 73% of the bets and 60% of the money.
And yet, the lines have moved today. The Pacers went from a pick’em to a one-point favorite, and the total has dropped a half point despite the large majority of bets coming in on the over.
Using our Sports Insights tools, we can see where sharps have been hitting numbers. We haven’t tracked any steam moves on the total — sportsbooks seem to be taking a stand there — but we have seen some sharp action this afternoon on the Pacers, which is why the line moved.
One notable thing I’m looking at tonight is how the Pacers start this game. Their main unit has largely been good this season: The starting lineup in a robust sample size of 648 possessions has posted a +9.6 Net Rating.
And yet, lately that’s really dipped. Since Jan. 1, they’ve posted an atrocious -10.2 Net Rating in the first quarter. If we look more recently — say, the last two weeks — it’s still bad at a -10.9 mark.
For whatever reason they’re starting games slowly — perhaps trying to reintroduce Victor Oladipo, who has struggled to get acclimated — which means if you like the Pacers, you might actually get better odds by live betting them early in the game as an underdog.
Top Player Prop for Raptors-Pacers
Pascal Siakam Over 7.5 Rebounds
Siakam has been such an important player for the Raptors this season and it’s no surprise that their winning streak essentially coincides with his return to the lineup after missing 11 games with an injury.
Since he’s been back in the lineup, he is averaging 6.8 rebounds, but he’s the team’s second-leading rebounder (7.7) and Marc Gasol will be out in this game as he continues to nurse a hamstring injury. Over this streak, Siakam has gone over 7.5 boards five times and our FantasyLabs player prop tool projects Siakam to have nearly nine boards.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.