NBA Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions (Tuesday, August 11): Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick White #4, Rudy Gay #22, and DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs.
Rockets vs. Spurs Betting Odds
Looking for Thursday’s Spurs game? Click here.
|Rockets odds||+4 [BET NOW]|
|Spurs odds||-4 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-159/+133 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||237 [BET NOW]|
|Time||2 p.m. ET|
This game means a lot more to the San Antonio Spurs than it does to the Houston Rockets.
Left for dead without their starting frontcourt of LaMarcus Aldridge and Trey Lyles, the Spurs have reinvented themselves once again with “power forward” DeMar DeRozan and a fast, young team. Suddenly the Spurs are within range of the West play-in, but they need to win both of their final two games and get plenty of help.
As for the Rockets? They still have the opportunity to move up in the seedings, but don’t seem to care. They’re resting James Harden and Eric Gordon on Tuesday and Russell Westbrook will sit on Wednesday. Can Westbrook take down the Spurs on his own?
The most important Rockets news is the injury news above. This will be the Westbrook show, with a bunch of 3-and-D guys. We’ll see if we get a full effort from Westbrook, but it’s not like he knows how to go less than 125%.
Harden has missed only three games this season, and Westbrook missed two of them as well. In the one game Russ played without Harden in Denver, he recorded 32 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists, but needed 29 shots to do it and recorded 10 turnovers. It was an overall miserable game that only stayed close because Austin Rivers and Danuel House were fantastic off the bench. But that’s only one game that also occurred when the Rockets still had Clint Capela, so it may not tell us much.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have transformed into a new team before our eyes. All hail Gregg Popovich. All six San Antonio bubble games have been single-digit affairs, with the Spurs going 4-2. Be careful, though. Those wins came against the now eliminated Kings and Pelicans, a completely resting Jazz team, and included a last-second win over the Grizzlies. Not exactly a sterling resume.
Jakob Poeltl has been brilliant for the Spurs, and he’ll be the biggest man on the court in a game where DeMar DeRozan and P.J. Tucker are bona fide big men. These Spurs feature youngsters like Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, and Lonnie Walker, and they are getting out and running. San Antonio is averaging 122.3 PPG in the bubble, with at least 119 points in all but one game. This game will be very small and very fast.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m not feeling great about either side in this one. The Spurs being favored by a few points seems about right, but it’s tough to know what version of Houston we get in this one.
There’s one thing we can feel pretty confident about, and that’s a whole lot of Westbrook. If you’re playing DFS today, Russ is a great place to start your lineup, especially since inefficiency barely matters in fantasy. I’m playing Westbrook’s rebounds. That line is set at 7.5, and that looks pretty low for a guy who will be all over the place in a game that’s going to have a whole lot of shots and rebound opportunities.
Westbrook is down to 8.0 RPG after averaging double digits each of the past three seasons, so he hasn’t rebounded as much in Houston. But with no Harden and no big men, he’s going to get a lot of chances. Our projections have him at 9.2 boards and rate this prop a nine out of 10.
Unless Westbrook sits late, this looks like a classic triple-double opportunity. I’m grabbing that over-7.5 rebounds at -128 (bet365) or as high as -160, and I’d play the 8.0 if needed too.
If you can’t find the props and want to play a game line, lean toward an over here. Given the options, I’d probably pick the Spurs’ team total over 120.5 given their clear motivation and the way they’ve been scoring in this bubble.
The Lean: Spurs over 120.5