Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Picks, Prediction: Value on Golden State 3rd Quarter Run (December 3)

Rockets vs. Warriors Odds

The Houston Rockets are coming off a comeback 122-121 victory in Phoenix last night in which the Suns failed to find the bottom of the net despite four shot attempts in the final possession.

Houston’s young star, Jalen Green, had an inefficient 30 points, but played great defense on Devin Booker as time expired, forcing a deep midrange fadeaway that clanked off the front rim.

The Golden Warriors were on the other side of a squandered lead, but won and covered to improve their home record to 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.

Does either side have value on the second night of a back-to-back after playing down to the wire? Let's take a look at how they match up and if there's value elsewhere we can find for Rockets vs. Warriors.

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Can the Rockets Capitalize on Momentum?

The Rockets close out a tough road trip in San Francisco on Saturday, coming off two losses to the Nuggets and a wild down-to-the-wire win over the Suns last night.

Houston trailed Phoenix by as many as 16 at one point during the third quarter and were down 10 points heading into the final 12 minutes, but thanks to an impeccable Michael Myers impression, continued to come back even after we all thought they were dead.

The Rockets were able to stay in the game thanks to two of their strengths — offensive rebounding and drawing fouls. Don’t let their awful record fool you, the Rockets are top five in both categories. Their Offensive Rebound Percentage (33.2%) is second only to the Memphis Grizzlies, while their Free Throw Rate (23.4) is third-best in the league.

What makes this matchup interesting, is that the much-superior Warriors squad struggles defensively in those two categories specifically — Second-worst Opponent Free Throw Rate (23.8) and an Offensive Rebound Percentage (28.3%) that is in the bottom third of the league.

While both the Rockets and the Warriors are coming off of back-to-backs, the Rockets find themselves in a tougher situational spot, playing their third game in four nights.

However, it’s early in the season and the Rockets are a young team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them come out of the gate running as we’ve seen them do all season.

Warriors 3-Point Volume Will Be Too Much

The Warriors continue their homecourt domination after a 119-111 win over the Chicago Bulls last night. Despite the victory and a seven-point cover, the Warriors struggled with consistency, trading quarters and even letting an 18-point lead dwindle to one point with 2:27 left in the game.

In the first half, unnecessary fouls were the problem for Golden State and they committed eight of their 19 total fouls in the first quarter. Stephen Curry got into foul trouble late and if not for an overturned call, would’ve fouled out of the game.

Considering they play a Rockets team that just made a comeback of their own last night, should the Warriors be concerned for a letdown spot?

I’m not one for suspense, so I’ll tell you right now the answer is no. As I previously mentioned, Houston’s offensive rebounding prowess and ability to get to the line could present a potential problem for Golden State’s defense. But as I also mentioned, the Rockets are on a back-to-back, and their third game in four nights.

What I didn’t mention was the Rockets’ inability to defend opponents from beyond the arc — something that could be easily exploited by a high-volume 3-point-shooting team like the Warriors.

Analytics tell us that three points is worth more than two points and the Warriors have never been ones to shy away from the advanced metrics. And it doesn’t take a state-of-the-art analytics department to tell you that having the NBA's greatest shooter hoisting those 3s is probably a good recipe for winning basketball games.

The Warriors take the most 3s of any team in the NBA this season with 44.8% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. That’s almost half of their shots coming from deep.

Meanwhile, the Rockets allow the fourth-most with 38.5% of their opponent’s shots coming from 3-point-range. I don’t see that changing tonight and expect a rain of 3s from the defending champs.

Rockets-Warriors Pick

I like the Warriors in this spot, but the Rockets could exploit some of the Warriors’ weaknesses and double-digit spreads can be concerning since there’s always the chance for a backdoor cover at the end of the game.

The Warriors in the third quarter at home has been a good bet for years now, but it’s important to pick the right spots. I think tonight is one of those spots. While the Rockets do have a good record in the third quarter (12-9 ATS), on the road that record falls to 5-8, meaning they do most of their post-halftime damage at home.

The Warriors are similar with their 9-13 overall third quarter record improving to 8-3 at home. Expect Golden State to take advantage of the Rockets at the end of a four-game road trip. I like the third quarter line down to -3.

Pick: Pick: Warriors -2.5 3Q

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