Suns vs. Nuggets Odds & Picks: Spread, Total, Player Prop & More Bets for Christmas Day Matchup
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | +132 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 231 -110o / -110u | -158 |
By Jim Turvey
Read the full game preview here.
It's a frustrating sentiment, but it's a common one when it comes to this game: So much of it is going to come down to the injury report. There are two very big pivot points, one on each side of the ball.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is essential to their offense, and the team has not looked the same without him in the lineup. Good gamblers know All-Star level players aren't worth more than 3-4 points to the spread, but those points are obviously a pivotal swing.
On the other side of the ball, it's fair to wonder whether Michael Porter Jr. will play in a second straight game after missing the past month with a heel contusion. He's hardly a paradigm of health, and although he isn't on the injury report at the time of writing, I'm still a bit cautious.
If both play, I'd imagine the line would settle around Denver -3.5. If both are playing and the line is closer to Denver -5, I'd take Phoenix, and of course the inverse if it is only Denver -2.
If Booker is officially ruled out, I wouldn't be surprised if the line gets up to around Denver -5.5 regardless of whether or not Porter plays. At that point, I'd be on Denver if Porter plays, but somewhat hesitant if he is also out. (Again, he's not on the injury report, just being cautious.)
Suns vs. Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-135)
| Best Line | DraftKings |
By Munaf Manji
The last game of the NBA Christmas Day schedule features a Western Conference matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.
This game will be a huge showdown for both teams in terms of tiebreakers because of how close the Western Conference standings are thus far.
One area that the Nuggets have excelled at this season is shooting the 3-ball. In fact, the Nuggets are the best 3-point percentage team in the entire league. The Nuggets have three different players on their roster who are shooting it above 40% from beyond the arc.
One of those players is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP leads the Nuggets in 3-point percentage (46.3%) thus far this season. Further, he is averaging two makes per game. However, over the last five games, KCP is shooting the 3-pointer at 47.3% and has knocked down at least two 3-pointers in three straight games.
Despite not giving up tons of makes from beyond the arc, the Suns do rank No. 24 in opponent 3-point percentage. In fact, that number has stayed consistent over the last five games, as they are allowing their opponents to shoot 39.7% from the 3-point line (24th).
With the attention Nikola Jokic commands on the offensive side for the Nuggets, I expect shooters like KCP to find the open shots and knock down at least two of them.
Suns vs. Nuggets NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick
By Alex Hinton
The Parlay: (+890) FanDuel
- Nikola Jokic To Record 10+ Rebounds (-300)
- Nikola Jokic To Record 8+ Assists (-230)
- Michael Porter Jr. 2+ Made 3s (-185)
- Jamal Murray To Score 20+ Points (-105)
- Aaron Gordon to Record 6+ Rebounds (-175)
Nikola Jokic to Record 10+ Rebounds and 8+ Assists
In nine career regular season matchups against DeAndre Ayton, Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and seven assists. However, many of those games over the last two seasons have come without either Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., or both. When Jokic plays with Murray and Porter Jr., he takes on more of a role as a facilitator. After all, he calls himself a "fat point guard" at heart.
This season, Jokic is averaging 9.3 assists per game and ranks third in the league. His line is at 8.5, and he has gone over in six of his 10 games. However, he has recorded eight assists in each of his last 10 games, including Friday when Murray and Porter Jr. returned to the lineup. In a parlay, I'll drop Jokic by one assist and increase the hit rate from 60% to 100% over his last 10 games.
Jokic has also dominated the glass this season, averaging 10.9 rebounds per game and ranking sixth in the league. He has upped his game of late, averaging 12.9 rebounds over his last 10 games and 14.6 rebounds over his last five.
The booster in there is the 27-rebound performance he had against Charlotte. However, he also has had games of 12, 13, 14 and 16 rebounds of late. He has recorded 10 rebounds in eight of his last 10 games, and that is a safe addition to a parlay.
Michael Porter Jr. 2+ Made 3-Pointers
Michael Porter Jr. missed 13 games with a heel strain. He returned on Friday night against Portland, and it did not take him long to resume doing what he does — knock down jumpers. He finished with 18 points and was 2-for-6 from beyond the arc.
Porter Jr. has made at least one 3 in all 17 games he has played in this season. He has made two in 12-of-17 games this season. This season, he is averaging 2.9 3s on 6.8 attempts per game. He will be facing a Suns team that ranks 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Two 3s for Porter Jr. should be a safe addition to a parlay.
Jamal Murray To Score 20+ Points
Murray also returned to the lineup on Friday, though unlike Porter Jr., his absence was just one game. He scored 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting from the field. Murray has been on of late with four 20-point games in his last six games. However, the two misses were duds with five and six point outings.
Hopefully, we get the good version of Murray on Christmas. Against Phoenix, I expect we will. Murray has not faced the Suns since 2021, but he has done well against them in his career, averaging 21.1 points in 18 career games. He has scored 20 or more in six of the last seven meetings and finished with 18 in the other.
With Porter Jr. back in the lineup, he figures to draw Mikal Bridges and leave Chris Paul on Murray. I like Murray's chances in that matchup.
Aaron Gordon To Record 6+ Rebounds
In previous matchups, Aaron Gordon has drawn the Devin Booker assignment. That often left him too tired to do anything on offense. With KCP on the Nuggets now, he should draw Booker if he plays. Gordon has also been scoring well, but he drops to the fourth option with Murray and Porter Jr. back in the lineup.
Gordon has also been rebounding at a high level this season, averaging 6.4 rebounds per game. He also has recorded six rebounds in 18 of 28 games this season. That includes four of his past five games. The Suns are middle of the pack (14th) in rebounds allowed, but 20th in offensive rebounds allowed. Gordon is averaging 2.2 offensive rebounds and could attack the Suns. There might be a few opportunities for offensive rebounds on the weakside if the Suns throw extra attention at Jokic on a few possessions.
If Gordon pulls down six rebounds to complete this parlay, it will be a very nice Christmas for all of us.
NBA First Basket Prop Odds & Pick: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr.
| Odds | Jokic (+460) | Porter Jr. (+850) |
| Book | FanDuel | PointsBet |
The final matchup on Christmas night features the Phoenix Suns taking on the Denver Nuggets. Deandre Ayton (68% opening-tip win rate) will face off against Nikola Jokic (30% opening-tip win rate) for the opening-tip. Jokic won both tips last season against Ayton. Joker also won tip-offs at a 60% rate last season, so this season's results are tough to interpret.
Devin Booker has been out for the past three games and remains questionable. Meanwhile, the Nuggets got Michael Porter Jr. back Friday after a long injury layoff. He was heavily involved in first possessions early in the season taking the first shot in 41% of games started this season. He continued that on Friday, taking the first two shots for Denver and making a 3-pointer.
In the two matchups last season that Jokic started, he cashed the first basket. Jokic has also hit the first team field goal in four of the last seven games. I'll take Jokic and Porter Jr. in this matchup.
Pick: Porter Jr. +850 (down to +650, 0.5u at PB)
Pick: Jokic +460 (down to +375 0.5u) |
Suns vs. Grizzlies First Basket Prop Data
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