The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Lakers are 67% favorites over the Warriors on Polymarket, with 50% of users giving LA a 6.5-point advantage. The over/under is set at 234.5 total points.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, October 21.
Warriors vs Lakers Prediction
- Warriors vs Lakers pick: Under 234.5 on Polymarket
My Warriors vs. Lakers pick is for the total to fall below 234.5 points, with the best price currently available on Polymarket. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Warriors vs Lakers Odds
- Warriors vs Lakers prediction: Lakers (67%), Warriors (33%)
- Warriors vs Lakers over/under: 234.5
Warriors vs Lakers NBA Preview
Golden State Warriors Preview
The Golden State Warriors didn't make any offseason blockbuster moves to build on a team that won just 37 games last season and failed to advance out of the play-in tournament.
Brandon Williams (13.0 PPG) and Georges Niang (9.9 PPG) were the only free-agent signings, joining first-year players Yaxel Lendeborg (drafted #11 from Michigan) and Graham Ike (undrafted from Gonzaga).
However, the Warriors gave contract extensions to Stephen Curry (38), Kristaps Porzingis (31) and Brandin Podziemski (23), while re-signing their own free agents, De'Anthony Melton (28), Draymond Green (36), Al Horford (40), Gary Payton II (33) and Charles Bassey (25).
While one could say injuries hampered the Warriors last season, their projected win total of 36.5 games suggests the market expects more of the status quo than anything else this campaign.
The Warriors already have the league's oldest roster, and they'll be without some of their experienced players for the season opener: Jimmy Butler III (ACL recovery), Moses Moody (knee), Podziemski (back) and Porzingis (personal).
With those absences, I expect the Warriors to prioritize efficiency over pace to start their campaign.
Los Angeles Lakers Preview
If we turn to the Lakers, they'll look remarkably different without LeBron James in the purple and gold. But James is far from the only departure, as Los Angeles traded Deandre Ayton to Washington and didn't re-sign free agents Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kennard, Maxi Kleber, Marcus Smart, Nick Smith Jr. and Drew Timme.
Los Angeles also waived Dalton Knecht before the season started.
With those departures, the Lakers are working through a ton of turnover, with 11 newcomers joining via trade, the draft or free agency. Notable arrivals include Collin Sexton (15.4 PPG), Walker Kessler (14.4 PPG), Quentin Grimes (13.4 PPG), Sandro Mamukelashvili (11.2 PPG) and Ziaire Williams (10.2 PPG).
Only Austin Reaves and Chris Manon opted to re-sign with the team as free agents.
Los Angeles has clearly gotten younger, now ranking in the top half of the league in youth, with an average age of 25.5 years. The plan is clear: surround their star players, Reaves and Luka Doncic, with plenty of energy and athleticism.
My only question is whether this team has enough shotmakers, given that the league's better teams tend to have at least three bona fide superstars. Sexton will probably be their third scoring option, considering he averaged 20 points in his second and third year with the Cavaliers.
However, it'll be interesting to see how things pan out because Doncic, Reaves, and Sexton are ball-dominant guards who like to operate with the ball in their hands.
Warriors vs Lakers Pick, Analysis
The Lakers should be a great watch this season given the length and athleticism they've added to the roster. Nonetheless, playing under the bright lights of Los Angeles will be a first for many of these new players.
We should see some defensive improvement, as the Lakers ranked in the bottom half of efficiency last season, allowing 115.5 points per 100 possessions. Los Angeles already ranked 22nd in pace, and I expect them to control games better by leaning on their defense.
Given the length on the team, we could see more scoring at the rim, with plenty of lobs off dribble penetration.
The Lakers' defensive upgrades, coupled with the Warriors' injury report, should bode well for a lower-scoring game. We've seen the total drop to 234.5 after opening at 237. This move to the under feels significant, but there's still enough of an edge to back the play as my model projects a total closer to 230.5.
Game 1 between these divisional opponents should tell us a lot about the depth and playing style of what we can expect from these two teams this season.
Pick: Under 234.5 on Polymarket
