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The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, October 21.
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NBA Picks for Wednesday, October 21
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hornets vs. Nets
By Matt Moore
This total is still taking steam down to 218, but I just have to go the other way from the sharp money.
The Nets were the No. 1 offense in preseason, but that’s preseason. They do have actual offensive players like Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle. They have guards who can create, as well as some finishers.
The Hornets are not going to be better defensively despite losing LaMelo Ball. They are also still going to bomb threes even with their best players on the shelf.
This feels like a ragtag 230s game, not a slugfest.
Pick: Over 219.5 (-110)
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Hawks vs. Magic
Since I've already played Benedict Arnold and faded my Magic on the spread, let me see if I can wash myself clean by backing a Franz Wagner prop.
I am taking Wagner Over 4.5 Assists at -135. The offensive philosophy in Orlando has completely shifted, and the offense is clearly running through Franz now. This is not just some experiment where they are testing something out in the preseason; this is a new coaching staff emphasizing a new point of attack.
The days of Jalen Suggs acting as the Chauncey Billups of this team are over; he is going to move more off-ball where he truly belongs. Paolo Banchero is obviously still going to have massive usage, but his involvement is changing for the better.
Part of Paolo's struggles historically came from having to use up his dribbles way outside the three-point line just to initiate basic sets. Now, they are just letting Franz do it, and it looked great in the preseason under Sean Sweeney.
In their first preseason game against the Grizzlies, the Magic posted an absurd 157 offensive rating with Wagner on the floor. He finished the preseason with 24 assists in just 70 total minutes of action. That translates to 0.34 assists per minute. If you give him a full 35-minute workload in the regular season, that projects out to close to 12 assists.
We don't even need him to hit his ceiling here; we just need him to get to five assists, a number he has hovered around for his career averages anyway.
With Franz acting as the primary initiator and Paolo playing more as the tip of the spear, Wagner should crush this line.
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
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Timberwolves vs. Heat
I am betting the Over 242.5 in this Timberwolves and Heat game, and I am not scared of this massive number in the slightest.
I'm scared of most things I bet, but this game just has "Over" written all over it in graffiti, highlighted, and covered in sparkly glitter.
The Heat were the fastest-paced team in the entire NBA last season, and they came right out and were the fastest-paced team in the preseason this year. Now, you give them a runaway freight train in Giannis Antetokounmpo who can get absolutely any bucket he wants in transition.
On the other side of the floor, you have a Timberwolves team that went all-in on a trade to acquire LaMelo Ball. My immediate, number-one takeaway when that trade happened was that I have to run to the window and blindly bet Timberwolves Overs.
Now, the Wolves open the season against the absolute kings of the Over in the Miami Heat. You would think that savvy bettors and oddsmakers would have fully adjusted to Miami's pace by now, but they really haven't.
The Heat hit the Over at a 57% clip last season; the market never truly caught up to how fast they were playing, and I fully expect the exact same delay in adjusting to this new-look, LaMelo-led Minnesota offense.
Minnesota's front office essentially told us with their offseason moves that they want to be a team that simply outscores you, and defense is going to take a backseat.
I've made the mistake of fading ridiculously high totals in baseball before, only to watch 16 runs get scored. Sometimes the oddsmakers set a ceiling because they don't actually know where the true ceiling is.
I'm betting the Over before the market figures it out.
Pick: Over 242.5 (-110)
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Pacers vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
I am grabbing Tyrese Haliburton to go over 26.5 points and assists, and honestly, I will probably sprinkle some on his double-double prop at plus-money (+157 at DraftKings) as well.
I absolutely love betting on Haliburton; I was hammering his props two years ago before he got hurt, and I genuinely believe this is one of those spots where his line is going to balloon into the 30s (like 29.5 or 30.5) in the next couple of weeks.
I know there is always a little bit of risk early in the season regarding how a guy is going to look or if his minutes will be monitored, but he looked awesome in the preseason.
I try not to put too much stock into preseason box scores, but I know Haliburton is feeling good physically because he was out there talking trash on the floor. When he's doing that, you know he is dialed in.
The entire Indiana offense runs through him; their whole identity is built around what Haliburton does as the primary table-setter. He is an elite facilitator who can effortlessly create his own shot, and now he has a brand new pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac. I think they are going to form a really dangerous combination.
The Pacers are matching up against a Pelicans team that I am pretty low on overall, but one that likes to push the tempo. New Orleans played at the fourth-highest pace in the league during the preseason.
A fast-paced, up-and-down game is the perfect environment for Haliburton to just slice and dice their defense.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 26.5 Points & Assists (-125)
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Jazz vs. Grizzlies
By Matt Moore
For the League Pass sickos out there, this Jazz and Grizzlies matchup is basically the Super Bowl.
When I was looking at the board, this line opened at Memphis -2.5, got bet all the way to Utah -3 back on October 6, and then slowly ticked back down until it eventually flipped. I originally grabbed the Grizzlies when they were catching +1.5 points at home, and I absolutely love the value there.
I always want to look at betting home teams in their home opener. It is your very first chance to get a feel-good win in front of your own fans, and I just think it is a consistently strong situational spot to back the home squad.
Even though the line has since shifted to make Memphis a slight favorite, getting them as a home underdog was too good to pass up.
I keep wondering what this Jazz team is going to look like defensively without Jusuf Nurkic anchoring the middle. They are relying on Jaxson Hayes, who is incredibly prone to foul trouble, and once he goes to the bench, the Jazz are going to be playing very small.
On the perimeter, Keyonte George is still a major defensive liability, and while Darryn Peterson has a bright future, he is a rookie who is going to have to learn the ropes of NBA defense on the fly.
On the Memphis side, Zach Edey projects as a strong defensive force, and Cam Boozer already looks like a three-year pro.
I just think Memphis is coming into the season slightly undervalued by the public.
Pick: Grizzlies -1.5 (-110)
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Pacers vs. Pelicans
By Ryan Minion
The Pelicans will host the Pacers on Wednesday night at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.
The Pelicans had a busy offseason, highlighted by hiring new head coach Jamahl Mosley, who previously served in the same role with the Magic last season.
While New Orleans’ starting five may not necessarily jump out at you as an elite lineup on paper, I see an organization boasting a ton of versatility, depth, and a young core that I expect to break out this season.
I am expecting a major resurgence from Zion Williamson, finally at full strength, which I expect to be a vital component to the Pelicans’ biggest edge ahead of tonight’s contest.
Zion’s uncanny ability to collapse defenses forces opponents into rotations, which I expect will open up far more efficient looks near the basket while also creating additional scoring avenues for an elite Pelican backcourt that now features both Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy.
New Orleans also boasts remarkable depth, with guards Jeremiah Fears and Benedict Mathurin expected to see plenty of minutes off the bench, which could be deceptively significant given Benedict’s several seasons with the Pacers.
The Pelicans currently list Yves Missi as their starting center, but I would be shocked if that holds up given the momentous potential Derik Queen, one of my favorite breakout-player candidates in the entire NBA this season.
Pacers’ three-time All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton, will return to action after missing the majority of last season recovering from a leg injury.
Though I'm not worried about Haliburton's ability to return to his former self post-injury, it may take time for him to get back to his highest level of play on both ends of the floor.
Dejounte Murray is also one of the league's most underrated on-ball defenders, and I expect that to be on full display tonight.
Murray’s relentless defensive pressure could very well frustrate Haliburton early on, likely resulting in an increased susceptibility to committing turnovers throughout the game.
If the Pacers’ primary defensive game plan is to contain Zion, then Trey Murphy and the rest of the Pelicans' guards should get far cleaner looks from beyond the arc, where Indiana's perimeter defense has struggled mightily over the last couple of seasons.
Another important note: the Pelicans will play in front of a home crowd in New Orleans, which could play a sizable role in Wednesday’s result given the Pacers’ 8-33 record on the road last season.
I have far more faith in this Pelicans rotation and the remarkable versatility in their lineup, so I like them on the moneyline to round out our “Barking 'Dogs Value Play of the Day."
Pick: Pelicans Moneyline (+130)
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Mavericks vs. Rockets
By Matt Moore
Max Christie was incredibly reliable from beyond the arc last year, cashing this over in 71% of all his games.
Christie's role with Dallas looks extremely promising; he logged the second-most catch-and-shoot attempts on the entire roster during the preseason.
The Mavericks' offense is clearly prioritizing the perimeter attack, ranking fifth overall in total three-point attempts per game in preseason action.
With Dallas generating that kind of team volume and Christie firmly established as a primary catch-and-shoot target, I have no problem laying the -170 for him to knock down at least two triples tonight.
Pick: Max Christie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-170)
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Suns vs. Trail Blazers
By Matt Moore
What on earth is this line? Seriously, what is this? I have absolutely no idea why the market is hanging this total at 232.5.
I understand that Damian Lillard is back in Portland, and maybe that's factoring into the inflated number, or perhaps the market is overreacting to the fact that Ja Morant and Dame are both minus-defenders. But you have to look deeper than just the names on the marquee.
The recurring story out of the preseason for Phoenix is that guys like Jock Landale simply can't shoot right now.
More importantly, the Suns are still going to be a defensive-minded basketball team under head coach Jordan Ott; that was their entire calling card last season. I honestly don't see any schematic reason why their offense would magically be vastly improved this year.
Sure, Devin Booker is going to shoot more, but I don't know if that inherently translates to better, high-efficiency offense across a full 48 minutes.
When I looked up the pace numbers, both of these teams ranked in the bottom 10 in preseason pace. In fact, both were in the bottom eight.
There are zero warning signs from a pace perspective or how they are scripting their offenses to make me think they are going to be running up and down the floor in a shootout.
I have to be careful with my model early in the year because it relies heavily on last season's data, but my model makes this total just 221. I cannot find any sort of justification for an 11-point differential here.
This game has "rock fight" written all over it.
Pick: Under 231.5 (-110)
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Warriors vs. Lakers
By Matt Moore
I can’t believe I’m doing this. I just think the market is too far ahead of the Lakers.
The Warriors are missing so much talent out of their roster, but they have found things that worked in preseason including Yaxel Lendeborg.
Steph Curry and Draymond Green are still pesky together, despite the fact that they are slowly fading.
Mostly, I just don’t think the Lakers should be this big of favorites against anyone, even the Warriors, even in the openers (OK, maybe the Kings. But nobody else).
Pick: Warriors Moneyline (+190)
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