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Wolves-Warriors Betting Guide: How Jimmy Butler’s Return Would Impact Over/Under Pick

Nov 02, 2018 5:10 PM EDT

Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jimmy Butler (23).

Betting odds: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -11.5
  • Over/Under: 242.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

There have been four 50-point games this season, and three of them belong to players matching up tonight. The Wolves are a mess right now, with Jimmy Butler holding himself out of their last game against the Jazz. Can they rally to cover the number in Golden State or will the champs keep rolling? Our analysts are here to discuss.

Mears: Sell the Timberwolves Offense

These are weird offensive teams. Look how they rank in frequency of shots at the rim and behind the arc — the spots you want to be taking shots.

  • Warriors: 30.9% (26th) at rim, 33.7% (14th) 3-point rate
  • Wolves: 34.2% (23rd) at rim, 28.2% (24th) 3-point rate

The reason their offenses have been good (in the Warriors’ case) or at least average (in the Wolves’) is crazy-hot shooting: The Dubs rank first in field goal percentage at the rim and 3-point line; the Wolves are fifth in 3-point percentage.

For the Warriors, while there may be some shooting regression, I’m not going overboard in predicting that; offensive profile doesn’t matter a lot when you have Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant — three of the best 10 shooters in the history of the world — on the court together.

But the Wolves are a different story.

Minnesota was just 19th in 3-point percentage last season and specifically 23rd on non-corner 3s. This year the Wolves have hit 39.6% of all their 3s and a stupid 40.1% of the non-corner ones (the harder ones). Butler has hit 48.0% of his 3s; Towns has hit 45.0% of his. Even Rose has hit nearly 40%. I’m going to sell all of those numbers in a big way.

The problem with betting the under on the total of 242.5 — which is the third-highest total since at least 2004 — is that the Dubs could easily put up 140, which then doesn’t require a whole lot of offense from the Wolves to hit the over. But I think the median outcome here is the Warriors covering and the under hitting. — Bryan Mears

Locky: Why I’m Betting the Over/Under Tonight



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