College Baseball Picks: Collin Wilson’s Odds & Projections for Sunday’s Games

College Baseball Picks: Collin Wilson’s Odds & Projections for Sunday’s Games article feature image

Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kentucky’s Ryan Waldschmidt.

College Baseball Picks

The college baseball season rolls on with another weekend of action around the country. That means it's time to dive in and see where the betting value lies this week.

Here are notes on a few of the Top 25 movers after another weekend of college baseball:

Moving Up

  • Arkansas, Clemson, Oregon State, Duke, East Carolina, Kentucky and Louisiana all posted undefeated records last week.
  • Wake Forest also went undefeated, sweeping the weekend at Virginia Tech. The Demon Deacons pitched exceptionally well at the launch pad of English Field. Expect continued positive regression for Josh Hartle and Chase Burns, who each have lower xFIP numbers than ERA.
  • Oregon (+10000) moved from unranked to 18th in the latest Top 25 poll. There's plenty of work ahead for the Ducks with a current strength of schedule rank of 172nd and a weekend series with Oregon State scheduled for April 26th.
  • Kentucky (+4000) enters the top 10 after a sweep of Alabama. The Wildcats have the best overall RPI ranking thanks to a 9-0 record in Quad 1 games.


📺 (@SECNetwork)#WeAreUK | #SCTop10 |

— Kentucky Baseball (@UKBaseball) April 7, 2024

Moving Down

  • After winning its first three SEC series, Florida (+1300) was swept on the road by Missouri by a combined three runs over three games. The road to Regionals does not get any easier with remaining series against Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
  • LSU, NC State and South Carolina all fell from the Top 25. The Tigers are the reigning national champion and in jeopardy of not making the postseason. LSU has yet to win an SEC series and now has Tennessee on deck.

Our projections for this weekend are a small sample from series that included the nation's top overall team in Arkansas. The Razorbacks are all but a lock to be a Super Regional seed, with Florida coming to Fayetteville at the end of the month.

If LSU wants to make a Regional, the path starts on the road in Knoxville this weekend. The Volunteers are quietly piecing together one of the best records in the nation once again for head coach Tony Vitello.

In our weekly projections, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated BaseRuns and park factors.

You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.

Here are the projections for games starting April 11:

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