College Baseball Picks, Predictions: Expert Projections for This Weekend’s Games (April 18-21)

College Baseball Picks, Predictions: Expert Projections for This Weekend’s Games (April 18-21) article feature image

David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Texas A&M’s Jace Laviolette.

Only five more weekends of series remain before college baseball conference tournaments and the unveiling of the 64-team Regional bracket.

The NCAA selection committee has tweaked the process of selections over the past couple of seasons, moving off RPI as the single variable. College baseball has now implemented a process similar to basketball, using quadrant records to determine eligibility in the postseason.

That's great news for Super Regional host hopefuls Clemson and Kentucky, sharing a quadrant 1 record of 22-1.

At-large bids will be decided not just by RPI rank and quadrants but strength of schedule as well. Teams with an RPI outside the top 35 could be in jeopardy of missing out on the NCAA Tournament, specifically LSU and Kansas State, who own a record of just 3-17 in Quad 1 games.

Here are notes on a few of the Top 25 movers after another weekend of college baseball.

Moving Up

  • Arkansas has been replaced by Texas A&M as the top team in the country. The Razorbacks lost the series at Alabama after winning the opener with Hagen Smith on the mound. The issue revolves around the offense. The Hogs average only seven runs per game and rank outside the top 100 in on-base percentage and slugging.
  • Louisiana is smoking the Sun Belt with a 14-1 record. While the number is impressive, the Ragin' Cajuns have gone on their run against teams with a losing record in conference play. Upcoming series against Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss and Troy will shake up the standings.
  • Florida State is in contention to host a Super Regional, as the Seminoles have been on a heater since getting swept by Clemson. Their next three series against Wake Forest, Duke and NC State will determine the ACC. The Noles are 3-4 in Quad 1 games, recently moving southpaw starter Jamie Arnold to Friday nights.

LHP Jamie Arnold (@FSUBaseball) looked great over 7 tonight. FB 93-95 T96 & held full outing, takes off up in zone. Full comm of biting SL at 83-85. Slow heartbeat & checks a ton of boxes. Pot 1st rd in ‘25

Soph./‘25 elig.

— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) April 12, 2024

Moving Down

  • The Big 12 is in flux, specifically with UCF's drop out of the Top 25. The Knights were never a consideration for a futures wager, supporting a losing record on the road and in quad 1 games.
  • Happy trails to Florida, a preseason top-five team. The Gators have lost six of their past seven games with continued struggles in the starting pitcher department. Game 2 freshman starter Liam Peterson supports an ERA of 7.79. Jac Caglianone continues to be the best pitcher and hitter on team, generating an ERA below 4.00 while leading in hits, RBIs, home runs and innings pitched.

A number of high-profile series are on tap in the SEC and ACC this weekend.

Alabama recently defended its home field against Arkansas and will now host the new No. 1 team in Texas A&M. Kentucky will take a perfect record in Quad 1 games and face a surging Tennessee roster. Duke's pitching staff will look to lock down English Field, an offensive launching pad for Virginia Tech.

With so much going on, it's time to dive in and see where the betting value lies this week.

In our weekly projections, sides are based on a calculation of ERA, FIP and xFIP. The total is based on the same numbers, along with calculated BaseRuns and park factors.

You can use this data along with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to get the most value on college baseball this season.

Be sure to follow along for college baseball picks in the Action App. Here are the projections for games starting Thursday, April 18:

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