Arkansas vs. Arizona Odds & Betting Predictions - March 27, 2026

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Arkansas and Darius Acuff have had a great SEC Tournament and run to the Sweet 16. However, this team is not as good as people may think, and they have also been the beneficiaries of some weak competition. The toughest team Arkansas has faced during their seven game win streak was Vanderbilt. In that game, they needed a heroic shooting day from Trevon Brazile and DJ Wagner, two guys that aren’t great shooters. The Razorbacks were just pushed to the brink by High Point and showed no ability of getting a stop. My point is, this run has been a little fluky, and they have not seen a team even close to the strength of Arizona. The last time they saw a team as big and aggressive down low was when they faced Florida and lost 77-111. The Gators scored 56 points at the rim and grabbed nearly 50% of their misses. Similarly to Florida, the Wildcats attack the basket on almost every possession, ranking 14th in two pointers nationally and first in the Big 12. They are elite on big cut and rolls and inside-out moves. They are also elite in transition and in rebound and scramble situations, two areas where Arkansas’ defense is giving up over 1.12 points per possession. Speaking of the Arkansas defense, this unit is miserable. Since March 1st, they are 74th in defensive efficiency and rank 275th in two point percentage allowed this season. This is a disaster scenario against an Arizona team that will almost exclusively attack their weakness. The Razorbacks also struggle on the glass, which is less than ideal against Arizona. Arkansas is just 203rd in defensive rebounding and will face an Arizona team that is 4th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. The Arkansas defense already can’t stop a nosebleed, and now gets its worst possible matchup. Also, Arkansas essentially has no bench depth, and getting into foul trouble is a big concern against Arizona. The Wildcats drew the most fouls in Big 12 play and Arkansas could be battling foul concerns all game. Offensively, Arkansas is as legit as they come, but I still don’t think they’ve seen a defense like Arizona’s. The SEC isn’t exactly known for defensive ability, which is why Arkansas has faced just the 44th toughest defensive schedule this season. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks third in defensive efficiency and owns the best effective field goal percentage allowed in the country. Arkansas is an elite transition offense, but the Wildcats allow transition looks at just a 38th percentile rate with a 98th percentile efficiency rating. Arkansas has the ability to shoot the lights out and keep the game razor close, but if the Razorbacks have an off shooting night, this game turns into a blowout. Give me Arizona to win big.

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