Arizona vs Duke Odds, Pick | Even Game Expected at Cameron

Below, we have Arizona vs Duke odds and a pick, including a college basketball betting guide for Friday, Nov. 10.

The best game of the early season will take place Friday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Duke Blue Devils (No. 8 on KenPom) host the Arizona Wildcats (No. 6 on KenPom) in what should be a doozy.

Both teams won their first games handily. Arizona lost some more key pieces in the offseason, but it hit the transfer portal hard. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils return the bulk of their lineup and added some key freshmen standouts.

However, Arizona has the talent to hang tough with the Blue Devils, even on the road. There's not much value in the spread, but the under should be in play, especially if Duke can control the pace, as it's prone to do.

The Wildcats lost Azuolas Tubelis, Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa and Cedric Henderson Jr. in the offseason. They bring in Caleb Love (UNC), Keshad Johnson (SDSU), Jaden Bradley (Alabama), KJ Lewis (freshman), Paulius Murauskas (freshman) and Motiejus Krivas (Freshman).

Tommy Lloyd used a deep rotation of players on Monday, but this was more so due to the discrepancy in talent between the Wildcats and Morgan State. Kylan Boswell, Pelle Larsson and Oumar Ballo look to have substantial roles, as they're some of the only returning players from last season.

Arizona does run at an exceptionally fast pace. It ranked ninth in Adjusted Tempo (KenPom) in 2022-2023, and based on its first game, it's still ranked in the top 15.

That said, outside of Larrson, Boswell and some bench pieces, this team doesn't have consistent 3-point shooting. Love helped lead the North Carolina Tar Heels to the title game in 2022, but last season, he was incredibly streaky, shooting 29.9% from deep. Johnson shot below 30% from deep, as well.

This will factor in for this matchup because the Blue Devils limited opponents to only 30.5% from downtown last season.

Losing Tubelis will hurt on the defensive end, but Arizona excelled at protecting the paint. Per Shot Quality, the Wildcats ranked ninth in fewest shots attacking the rim on defense last year. They also ranked 31st in points per possession at the rim, so since Duke rarely shoots from deep, this will come into play in this game.

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The Blue Devils were a better defensive team than offensive unit last year, and that could be the case again in 2022-23. Yes, they carved up Dartmouth, but they still only held a 28.8% 3-point attempt rate in that game. This is comparable to last season, and as mentioned above, they get the majority of their points inside the arc.

Adding to that, the Blue Devils don't draw much contact. They ranked 224th in free-throw attempt rate in 2022-2023 on offense, but they also didn't foul much, ranking 13th in defensive free-throw attempt rate.

Arizona usually thrives at the line, but Duke will cut into this edge. Arizona also ranked 34th in defensive free-throw attempt rate last season.

Simply put, fouling should be at a minimum in this game.

Finally, Duke can rebound. They ranked ninth in offensive rebounding percentage last year and 69th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Wildcats ranked 117th overall in rebounding percentage, so without Tubelis, this could be a concern.

That said, Love, Larsson and Johnson will help out Ballo on the boards, with each having averaged over 3.5 rebounds per game last season. Kyle Filipowski and Ballo will be a good matchup in the post. Mark Mitchell is questionable, but Duke has the backups to fill in if he has to miss this game.

This game will be a clash of the blue bloods in college hoops. However, both of these teams can play defense. Since the Blue Devils rank 305th in Adjusted Tempo and 242nd in defensive time of possession, this should slow the pace.

As long as the Blue Devils aren't gathering every offensive board, this will be an even ball game.

Take this under to 151.

Pick: Under 154.5 (Play to 151)

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