Follow the Money for Three Valuable College Hoops Picks
Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports
There are 35 college basketball games on Wednesday featuring six top 25 teams and the start of the Big Ten Tournament (full preview). With so many options, where should bettors begin?
The easy answer, fade the public and follow the money. Here are three games with soft lines that sharp bettors like:
For most of us, gambling isn’t our full-time occupation, but we can bet like a pro by identifying teams that casual bettors are fading yet are receiving a majority of spread dollars.
Using the Bet Labs database, squads getting less than 35% of spread tickets but at least 50% of spread dollars have gone 390-330-17 (53.5%) ATS since 2015. Note, we’ve only been tracking spread dollar percentage the last three seasons.
If the line then moves away from the public percentages, bettors following the reverse line movement have gone 292-224-11 (56.6%) ATS. We could stop here with a nice sample size and consistent results (feel free); however, a 57% ATS win rate isn’t good enough for me. I want more!
By adding a few additional filters, taking road teams (typically undervalued by squares) in conference games (competitive due to familiarity with opponent) we get a betting system that has gone 154-101-8 (60.4%) ATS. This strategy, fade the public and follow the money, has been profitable each season since we started tracking spread dollar percentages and is 44-30-4 (59.5%) ATS this year.
Follow the Money Wednesday
Dayton (+2.5) at La Salle
Dayton is 1-9 on the road this season and hasn’t beaten La Salle in Tom Gola Arena in seven years. The Flyers are only getting 27% of bets but a majority of spread dollars has triggered a reverse line movement bet signal and driven the line from La Salle -3.5 to -2.5.
Air Force +10.5 at Wyoming
Wyoming opened as an 11.5-point favorite against Air Force and is receiving more than 60% of spread bets, but the money is flowing in on the Falcons despite the team losing seven of its last 10 games.
Florida State +3 at Clemson
The Noles are coming off an ugly 92-72 loss to NC State on Saturday, which might explain why they are attracting so few bets. FSU has already beaten a ranked Clemson team once this season and will look for the season sweep on Wednesday night.
Lines and public betting percentages move throughout the day, be sure to check our free odds page for updates.
Want more trend-based college basketball picks? Try Bet Labs for a month, get game matches for this system and more!
Pictured: Florida State guard Terance Mann
Photo by Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports