Saturday’s Sharp Report: Five Afternoon Bets Wiseguys are Pounding
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
If your Saturday doesn’t start until you see a “p.m.” on the clock, this is the blog for you. So grab your Pedialytes, friends. We may have missed the noon tip-offs, but thankfully there’re still plenty of sharp plays to go around this afternoon.
I’ll cover five wiseguys bets below. The games start at 3:30, 4 and 5 p.m. Good luck!
All data as of 12:30 p.m. ET
Auburn at South Carolina (+6)
3:30 p.m. ET
At 11-2 in conference and 23-3 overall, Auburn has been the most impressive team in the SEC this season, so it’s not surprising to see the public so heavy on the 10th-ranked Tigers.
But despite Auburn receiving 77% of bets to this point, books have not moved this line from -6. That line freeze is a great indication that sharps are taking the points with South Carolina.
UNLV at San Diego State (-4.5)
4 p.m. ET
It’s a similar story in this Mountain West matchup. While public bettors are seeing an opportunity to take UNLV (19-7) plus points against a 14-10 SDSU, sharps are not concerning themselves with records.
Despite only receiving 27% of bets, this line has not dropped from -4.5 thanks to heavy sharp action (62% of dollars) on the Aztecs, making this a great opportunity to fade a trendy dog and lay some points for a change.
NC State at Wake Forest (-2.5)
4 p.m. ET
Perhaps the game with the most sharp action on this afternoon’s slate, this one opened with Wake Forest as just a 1-point favorite. It certainly hasn’t been public money shifting the line toward the Deacons, as only 36% of bettors have backed them thus far. But thanks to 70% of dollars landing on Wake and leading scorer Bryant Crawford (pictured above), we have our current line of -2.5.
Look at the wiseguys having some fun taking two favorites today.
BYU at San Diego (+3)
4 p.m. ET
These two WCC teams are trending in completely opposite directions coming into this one. BYU has won three straight to improve to 10-5 in conference, while San Diego has dropped its past two games and fallen to 7-8. Take a wild guess which is the public side.
Despite their recent struggles, the Toreros have gained the backing of sharp bettors. They’ve only received 24% of bets to this point, but a slightly higher percentage of dollars (36%) has dropped this line from its opening number of 4.
UC Davis (+6.5) at UC Santa Barbara
5 p.m. ET
Different conference, same story as wiseguys are fading another streaking team in the Big West. UCSB has won eight straight, improving its overall record to 20-5. The Gauchos have also yet to lose at home this season. While UC Davis is a respectable 17-9 itself, public bettors can’t help themselves when they see a “W8” in the streak column.
But despite the 77% of the bets on Santa Barbara, this line fell a point from its opening number of UCSB -7.5, so sharps are by no means seeing this one as a blowout.
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Photo by Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports