Sunday Betting Brunch: Sharp Bettors Targeting Neutral Court Under
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
With conference tournaments continuing, Sunday offers a combination of small and large schools facing off in hopes of an auto-bid into the NCAA Tournament.
One of the smaller conferences, the Colonial Athletic Association, has four games on tap today. One in particular is seeing some sharp action on the under.
In a face-off between the #4 and #5 seed, William & Mary hopes to fend off Towson in a game whose line is currently right around a pick ’em. While the line itself isn’t seeing a ton of action, the total is.
Historically, unders have hit at over a 52% rate in neutral court conference tournament games and I believe some folks have picked up on that.
These teams have already played each other twice this season, with both being high-scoring affairs. In their first matchup, Towson won 99-73 on the road and in the second, 178 total points were scored, with Towson easily beating Bill and Mary again, 96-82.
With that said, the majority of bettors took the over when the line opened at 163 at Bookmaker. Both of their previous two games went over 170 points, so it’s understandable to think bettors would expect the same thing today.
Instead of rising, this total has dropped all the way to 158 at Bookmaker and 157 at Pinnacle. If we check our dollar percentages, we can see why.
With more than a 40% dollar differential in favor of the under, the total has been falling all night and morning. We’ve also tracked two bet signals on the under at Sports Insights, one of which came from the sharp offshore book Heritage.
In these spots, the sharps have generally been right in the long run. Since 2005, neutral court conference tourney games have gone under nearly 56% of the time when the total has dropped by three points or more. That rate actually improves to 59% when we narrow our sample to totals that have dropped by four points or more, so if you’re scared about taking a bad number, maybe you shouldn’t be.
Top Photo: William and Mary Head Coach Tony Shaver
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