NCAAB Odds, Pick for Auburn vs Baylor

The Baylor Bears and Auburn Tigers will battle at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in what's arguably the best marquee matchup of the week.

Auburn is likely a bit more balanced, but Baylor always has a lethal offensive approach. Both are top-20 in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom preseason ratings, so let's dig into the odds and make a Auburn vs. Baylor prediction.

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The Tigers lost Wendell Green, Jr., Allen Flanigan and Zep Jasper in the offseason.

Bruce Pearl then added Aden Holloway (five-star freshman), Denver Jones (FIU), Chaney Johnson (Alabama-Huntsville), Chad Baker-Mazara (Northwest Florida State) and Addarin Scott (Navarro).

Jaylin Williams, K.D. Johnson and Johni Broome all return, so the Tigers have some depth. Chris Moore and Dylan Cardwell will be in the rotation, too.

Last season, Auburn ranked 309th in 3-point percentage and 159th in 2-point percentage. Holloway is taking over the point guard position and he'll likely make some freshman mistakes, but the talent outweighs what Auburn lost.

Last season, the Tigers fared well on the offensive glass, and with Williams and Broome back, they should see similar success. However, Auburn ranked 323rd in defensive rebounding, so Baylor should have multiple put-back opportunities.

The Tigers weren't an efficient offensive team last season. Jones shot over 37% from deep, so his addition will help. Plus, Holloway will also bolster the offense, even if he's undersized.

There's nowhere to go but up for Auburn's offense.

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Baylor lost Adam Flagler, Keyonte George, LJ Cryer and Flo Thamba in the offseason.

The Bears added RayJ Dennis (Toledo), Ja'Kobe Walter (five-star freshman), Miro Little (four-star freshman), Yves Missi (four-star freshman) and Jayden Nunn (VCU).

Meanwhile, Jalen Bridges, Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua, Caleb Lohner, Langston Love and Josh Ojianwuna all return to the rotation. Baylor will have plenty of experience in the post, but it has to replace a lot of backcourt-scoring production.

That's where Dennis comes in. He averaged over 19 points, four rebounds and five assists last year with Toledo. He also shot over 36% from 3.

Nunn averaged over 40 minutes per game with 9.3 points, 1.5 steals and a 3-point percentage over 40%.

Baylor shot 36.8% from deep last year with a top-25 offensive rebounding percentage. The Bears should fill the gaps with their additions, but adding length will help in the backcourt.

However, the issue in this matchup will be guarding down low. Per Shot Quality, Baylor ranked 348th in defending shots at the rim. The Bears also ranked 293rd in defensive rebounding, per KenPom.

That won't be fixed overnight as Baylor has a similar rotation on the block.

The Bears will probably display some of these mishaps in the early going until they figure out a rhythm.

Auburn and Baylor will struggle on the defensive glass. Baylor still has some threats from downtown and Auburn will be improved offensively.

This should be an offensive game that's played a quicker pace with multiple second-chance opportunities.

Additionally, neither team took good care of the ball last season, so it may take a minute to iron out the turnovers.

Bet this game to go over the total.

Pick: Over 143 (Play to 144.5)

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