Baylor vs Duke Odds, Pick for Wednesday

Duke's Tyrese Proctor (ankle) is out for tonight's game.

Two top-25 teams square off on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden as No. 10 Baylor takes on No. 21 Duke.

The Bears look to bounce back following a 24-point loss to Michigan State on Saturday. Despite an overhaul of the roster from a season ago, Baylor boasts one of the best offenses in basketball.

The Blue Devils on the other hand, boast a more experienced unit, though they've struggled out of the gates. They enter with two straight 20-point wins.

Can Duke pick up its second Quadrant I victory, or will Baylor's dominant offense carry it to victory? Read for Baylor vs Duke odds and a pick for Wednesday.

It was only a matter of time before negative regression struck Baylor, and it came in full force on Saturday. The Bears scored just 17 first-half points and one of the most efficient offenses in the country struggled to muster up any success.

Offense is the name of the game for Scott Drew’s squad. The Bears are top-10 in offensive rebounding and first in 3-point shooting (44.6%). Every player aside from center Yves Missi is shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc, led by Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis.

Dennis ranks 12th in the country in assist rate and is shooting 46.2% from 3. He’s the key to this Bears offense, as he's used on 26.4% of possessions while on the floor. His seamless transition — paired with freshman JaKobe Walter — has led to Baylor remaining a prolific offense.

Remember, this is a team that had to replace its three-headed monster of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer from a season ago.

Walter made headlines in the Bears’ season-opener, when he dropped 28 points against Auburn. He doesn’t turn the ball over, is efficient on offense and is the main perimeter threat.

This is a physical offense that runs the pick-and-roll at a near-20% rate. The Bears thrive on attacking the rim (46%) and getting to the foul line.

While this team has been a well-oiled machine offensively, there remains a lot to be concerned about on the defensive end. Baylor is just 69th in Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, doesn't force many turnovers and ranks league average in all categories across the board. ShotQuality has Baylor’s defense as 247th in adjusted PPP.

The Bears are a bit of a funnel defense, forcing opponents off the 3-point line and into the paint. Opponents attack this Baylor defense through the pick-and-roll, and as a byproduct, the mid-range.

Missi has provided rim protection (28th in block rate) and efficient rebounding, two much-needed areas given Baylor’s defensive tendencies. He also draws fouls at the ninth-highest rate.

Aside from the 7-footer, though, rim protection can be weak at times. Jalen Bridges provides some stability and a defensive boost, but Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua has been battling injury. That leaves Josh Ojianwuna and Caleb Lohner off the bench.

When the offense gets going, there’s little that can be done to stop Baylor. We saw that being the difference in close, high-scoring bouts with Auburn and Florida.

The question is: Can this offense sustain an NCAA-best 44.6% rate from 3?

It’s been a rollercoaster start to the season for Duke, losing three of its first eight, including an ACC bout against lowly Georgia Tech. Despite the return of Kyle Filipowski and the fact that they rank 29th in minutes continuity, there have been some growing pains for the Blue Devils.

The status of Tyrese Proctor remains in question. He missed the last two games with an ankle injury and remains up in the air for Wednesday night. The sophomore averages double figures and was the team leader in assists prior to the injury. He's also their best on-ball defender.

Efficient is the perfect word to describe this Duke offense. Jeremy Roach is the elder ball handler for a Blue Devils team that ranks seventh in turnover rate. They're inside the top 60 in both 2-point and 3-point offense.

The focal point is the aforementioned Filipowski. The 7-foot center surprisingly returned for his sophomore season and takes 30% of shots while on the floor. He's a do-it-all big who's often a mismatch. Filipowski draws fouls at a high rate, is an efficient rebounder and can stretch the floor. He leads the team in points (18.4), rebounds (9.2) and blocks (1.9).

Two of Duke’s top-25 recruits — Jared McCain and Caleb Foster — have played fairly large roles of late, especially given Proctor’s injury. Their growth is imperative towards the Blue Devils’ success across the board.

Duke is around league average at both 3-point and 2-point defense, though ShotQuality projects positive regression based on the looks the Blue Devils force. They're elite in limiting second-chance opportunities (11th in defensive rebounding).

This is a physical defense that forces opponents deep into the shot clock (332nd in average possession length). Because of Filipowski and the length of this Duke defense, the Blue Devils rarely get attacked around the rim.

Rather, Duke gives up nearly 40% of attempts from the perimeter and are attacked in the mid-range through the pick-and-roll. ShotQuality ranks the Blue Devils as eighth in the country.

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The status of Proctor plays a huge role in this handicap from a side perspective. If he's able to suit up, I believe the Blue Devils are undervalued here in a pivotal non-conference matchup. Duke has a single Quadrant I/II win to three losses, and capitalizing on the Bears' potential slide is critical.

Baylor can shoot the 3 ball well, obviously, but that's not its go-to. The offense looks to attack and draw fouls, using its physicality to create second-chance opportunities.

Well, Duke's defense is well-suited for that, using Filipowski and Mark Mitchell as deterrents inside. Opponents attack the rim just 28% of the time, outside the top 250 in terms of frequency.

If Proctor is a go, I would place a half-unit bet on the Blue Devils up to -2. The backcourt depth and Filipowski should prove the difference in this matchup. Baylor's defense remains soft, and I believe negative regression will continue to take its toll on Scott Drew's squad that ran so incredibly well to begin the season.

I would also throw a half-unit on the first-half under here, regardless of Proctor's status. The game is at Madison Square Garden, and based on BetLabs' history, when there's a 1H total between 70-80 on a neutral-court game at MSG, the under hits at a 61% clip.

That's based on a 53-game sample.

Though the number is not out yet (as of writing), look to back the first-half under in a matchup where the full-game total has been dropping since open.

Pick: 1H Under | Duke ML (-115) if Tyrese Proctor Returns

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