College Basketball Odds, Pick for BYU vs Iowa State

No. 6 Iowa State and No. 20 BYU meet at Hilton Coliseum on Wednesday night for a top-25 showdown in the Big 12.

The Cyclones have won seven of their last eight to enter this contest just one game back from No. 1 Houston in the league standings.

Meanwhile, BYU has had a strong debut season in its new conference, owning a 9-7 Big 12 record to go along with 21 overall wins.

Whether it’s a conference title or postseason seeding, this is a crucial matchup on the hardwood, and we should have a great battle in Ames.

When BYU announced it was joining one of the nation's elite conferences, everyone thought it could be a challenge. However, head coach Mark Pope is turning this into a memorable campaign in Provo.

BYU toppled Kansas last week, marking its fourth regular-season win over a top 25 opponent and first on the road since 2020. The Cougars' four ranked wins over four different opponents are the most in program history.

Pope’s team has also won 20 games in a season for the fourth time in his first five campaigns, making him one of just three BYU coaches since 1949-50 to do so.

One of the keys to success has been the play of Jaxson Robinson. He's the Cougars’ leading scorer at 14.1 points per game and has scored in double figures in six of his last seven games.

It was a February to remember for head coach T.J. Otzelberger and his Iowa State squad. The Cyclones went 6-2 in the month, with their six victories being the most in February since they won seven in 2017.

The recent surge also extended their home winning streak to 17 straight games, which is the fifth-longest active streak in the country. Iowa State and Samford are the only undefeated teams at home with at least 17 wins.

Another reason this Iowa State group can make a deep run in March is the play of Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert in the backcourt. Coming into last weekend, they were two of just nine players in the nation averaging at least 12.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game.

When handicapping a BYU game, it all comes down to how each team performs from beyond the arc, and I think multiple metrics point to the Cougars having success.

So, my best bet is for the visitors to cover the spread of +6.5, which I would bet down to +5.5.

On the season, only North Florida (46.3%) scores a higher percentage of its points from 3-pointers than BYU (41.1%). While Iowa State is elite defensively, this is a team that can give up outside shots.

The Cyclones rank 340th nationally in percentage of points given up on 3-pointers. This is the lowest ranking in the Big 12, with the next closest squads being Kansas and West Virginia.

BYU is 3-0 against those programs that allow plenty of outside shots.

Yes, Iowa State has been dominant at home. However, the Cyclones have used hot starts to build a lead at halftime to hold onto in the second half. The Cougars have also been great in the opening period and come into this matchup ranked 13th in average first-half margin.

On the road in conference play, BYU has either been winning or tied going into halftime in five of its eight games.

The Cougars made 13 3-pointers in the first meeting, and if they're close to that number again, I love their chances of covering this spread.

Pick: BYU +6.5 (Play to +5.5)

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