BYU vs Texas Tech Odds & Prediction: Big 12 Betting Preview

This is a super intriguing 4-5 matchup between BYU and Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals.

These are two supernova offenses, but the Cougars and Red Raiders generate offense differently.

I question whether either defense can stop the opposing offense.

The Cougars run a five-out zoom-action offense. Essentially, that means copious amounts of off-ball screening actions – stagger screens, twirl screens, you name it – to generate open 3-point shots.

And BYU knows how to make those shots. Aly Khalifa, Jasxon Robinson, Dallin Hall, Trevin Knell, Noah Waterman and Richie Saunders have canned 309-of-841 3-point attempts combined, suitable for a ridiculous 37% clip.

Waterman and Khalifa are must-watch material when observing BYU games. The two are among the best stretch big men in the game, showing unthinkable shooting strokes for their size.

Look out when the two are on the floor together…

Surprisingly, the Cougars' perimeter shooting wasn't great in conference play, all the way down to 32%. But they’re still generating an OK amount of open jumpers, and ShotQuality projects them for some positive regression based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.

I’m not overly worried.

They’ve managed to compensate for that regression with better interior offense. Fousseyni Traore and the other big BYU men have dominated with their screen-and-roll game, and it’s been effortless for the Cougars to generate interior offense when the defense is so spread out.

BYU leads the Big 12 in 2-point shooting (57%) for a reason.

However, the Mark Pope offense is somewhat gimmicky, compensating for athletic shortcomings via elite sharpshooting.

And BYU’s lack of athleticism is often exposed on the defensive end, where elite dribble penetrators and shot creators overwhelm it laterally.

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Unfortunately for BYU, Texas Tech is filled with insane dribble-penetrators and shot creators.

Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint lead an offense that ranks third in the Big 12 in Offensive Efficiency. The two are stud ball-screen initiators but can score on and off the ball, with the Red Raiders’ secondary actions arguably working better.

Between those two and swingman Darrion Williams, the Red Raiders can unpack any defensive scheme through pure creation, which poses a monster issue for BYU.

However, Grant McCasland hasn’t effectively transitioned his no-middle scheme to Lubbock.

McCasland is a Scott Drew Baylor disciple who's become synonymous with the no-middle, a scheme designed to force ball-handlers toward the sidelines and baselines while bringing extra help across the paint, thus protecting the paint and rim at all costs.

But the Raiders can’t effectively execute this scheme as currently constructed, with the Raiders getting gashed at the point of attack – Toussaint and Isaacs simply aren’t great point-of-attack defenders, especially the former.

And the Raiders are in a tough spot if Warren Washington is still hurt. He’s currently listed as day-to-day with a foot injury, and it’s still unclear if he’ll suit up for the postseason. The team’s rim defense is eight percentage points worse with him off the court.

Of greater importance to this matchup is that the no-middle scheme is ultra-vulnerable to crisp passing and stellar weak-side shooting. Given its inherently aggressive and scrambling nature, the scheme leaves weak-side spot-up opportunities wide open.

Texas Tech ranks eighth in the Big 12 in 3-point rate allowed and 13th in Open 3 Rate Allowed, and BYU personifies crisp passing and weak-side shooting.

The last head-to-head matchup featured 163 total points, soaring over the closing 144.5-point total.

I expect more of the same in the rematch.

BYU could shred Texas Tech’s no-middle scheme by shooting over the top. And in Washington's absence, the Cougars could shred the Red Raiders with a crisp screen-and-roll game.

Meanwhile, the Cougars won’t be able to keep up defensively with Texas Tech’s elite dribble penetration and shot creation. The Cougars don’t have the side-to-side athleticism to keep up with Isaacs and/or Toussaint.

For example, Isaacs scored 32 points on 16-for-19 (6-for-9) shooting in the regular season meeting. The BYU defenders had no hope.

This all played out in the regular-season matchup, and I expect a repeat performance in the Big 12 tournament, especially with Washington hobbled.

I’ll wager on another high-scoring affair, even in a tournament setting.

Pick: Over 153

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