College Basketball Best Bets Tonight | Our Staff’s 5 Top Picks (January 25)

Only one ranked team (No. 9 Arizona) is in action tonight in college basketball, but there's still plenty of betting value.

Here's college basketball best bets and our staff's five top picks for Thursday, January 25.

College Basketball Best Bets Tonight

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Shane McNichol

This is a massive game in the CAA, especially for those invested in Drexel. That group includes me, both emotionally (wife’s alma mater) and financially (gave out the Dragons at +750 a few weeks ago as my favorite futures bet and certainly jumped on that myself).

The Dragons have slightly overperformed to date, starting conference play with seven straight wins while shooting an eye-popping 43% from outside the arc. That’s notable given the Dragons only shot 28% in non-conference play.

Regression is imminent, though I’m willing to bet the Dragons either continue to shoot well here or survive even if they go cold.

The case for staying hot is simple: Towson is begging for some defensive shooting regression. The Tigers’ opponents are shooting just 31% from deep this season and only 22.9% in conference play.

This is despite Towson giving up the 38th-most 3-point attempts per game in the country.

Even if Towson’s luck continues, expect Drexel big man Amari Williams to dominate this game. Towson’s offense already struggles to attack the interior, and Williams’ rim protection will only make that more clear.

On the other end, Towson is bad at cleaning the glass, and Williams is one of the nation’s best offensive rebounders.

This would be a steal on the road for Drexel, but I think the Dragons are good enough to take care of business.

Pick: Drexel +1.5

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By Patrick Strollo

The UC San Diego Tritons (12-7, 6-1) will look to move into a tie for first place in the Big West with a win tonight as they host the UC Riverside Highlanders (8-12, 3-5).

UC San Diego has played very well at home this season, picking up victories in eight of its nine contests. The Tritons are hosting a Highlanders team that's struggled mightily on the road this season, dropping all 10 true road contests.

The Tritons' offense is the most efficient in the Big West, with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.8 points per 100 possessions.

That mark ranks 84th in the nation and will be a tough matchup for a UC Riverside defense that’s the least efficient defense in the conference, with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.7 that ranks 281st.

The thing that stands out to me most when handicapping this game is the effective field goal rating of UC Riverside. The Highlanders haven't been shooting well this season and enter the game connecting on just 45.3% of their attempts — second-to-last in the conference and 331st nationally.

I expect them to continue to struggle from the field in this road contest.

Another reason why I like backing the Tritons is that they've been one of the most profitable teams in the nation for bettors. They’re 12-5 against the number, cashing tickets at a 70.6% rate and covering the spread by an average of 4.9 points per game.

My model is predicting a sizable advantage over actionable markets at the time of publishing, with UC San Diego projected as a 10.5-point favorite. This represents a 3.5-point edge to the best available line.

I like laying the chalk in favor of the more efficient home team in this game and recommend betting UC San Diego at -8.5 or better.

Pick: UC San Diego -7 (Play to -8.5)

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By Doug Ziefel

If it were March, Michael Ajayi would be a "dude" to watch out for on Pepperdine. The 6-foot-7 junior can do it all, leading the Waves in scoring, rebounding and 3-point shooting.

Tonight, he'll lead his club against a Santa Clara team that'll be dreading his arrival. Ajayi dominated when these two teams met on Jan. 6, putting up 27 points and grabbing 10 rebounds.

However, for this upcoming matchup, we're going to focus on the scoring department.

Ajayi is a player who does most of his damage from the mid-range, but in the first meeting, we saw him use his skill to work deep in the paint and draw fouls. Santa Clara didn’t do a great job of protecting the rim, and Ajayi worked towards his second-best scoring output of the season.

That experience should only help Ajayi fill it up again tonight. If Santa Clara plays off him or goes under screens, he has the range to make the Broncos pay.

In addition to the matchup, Ajayi has sailed over this total in the majority of games this season. He has scored at least 16 points in 62% of games played this season.

That hit rate gives us implied odds of -163, which means the juice is worth the squeeze with this over.

Pick: Michael Ajayi Over 15.5 Points -130 (Play to 16.5)

By D.J. James

Saint Mary’s is riding high after a victory over San Francisco on Saturday on the road. This could have major WCC implications, given that Gonzaga is having a bit of a down year.

Saint Mary’s gets an easier test on Thursday against Pacific.

Pacific is usually a fast-paced team. That being said, the Tigers have a putrid offense, shooting below 32% from deep and below 50% from inside the perimeter. They do get to the free-throw line quite frequently, but being on the road won't do them many favors.

Additionally, Pacific likes to shoot the ball from outside, while Saint Mary’s ranks within the top 15 in defensive 3-point attempt rate. The Gaels also hold opponents to less than 44% from 2-point range.

Simply put, unless the Tigers are getting to the line, they won’t score often.

Saint Mary’s is historically a slow-paced team. The Gaels rank in the bottom 20 in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, and log more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. Seeing how Pacific is not too strong on either side of the ball, the Gaels will dictate the pace at home.

SMC scores most of its points inside the arc, so 3s won’t be as common. That’s especially true considering Pacific allows opponents to shoot 57.5% inside the arc.

Either way, Pacific doesn’t have the offense to score against Saint Mary’s.

Take the under to 133.5.

Pick: Under 135.5 (Play to 133.5)

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By John Feltman

I can't stress enough how awful the Pacific Tigers are. They're easily one of the worst teams in the entire country and have covered only twice since Nov. 10.

KenPom projects the game Saint Mary’s -27, and I think that's an undersell. Digging into the metrics, the Tigers are bottom-10 in almost every offensive and defensive category.

Meanwhile, the Gaels have hit their stride, and their offense is starting to mimic the defensive side of the ball. Guard Aidan Mahaney has been hot from the outside and should have no issues putting up a massive performance against the Tigers’ pathetic defense.

You’re telling me the Tigers are ready to face a Randy Bennett defense on the road? No way. The Gaels are 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and the Tigers are 336th in Adjusted Offensive eEficiency.

I don’t think the bottom of the market has been reached, and I don’t see a world where this is a competitive basketball game. The Gaels have way too many advantages on both sides of the floor, and I don’t think the Tigers score over 50 points.

If you told me a month ago that I would be willingly laying over 25 points with the Gaels, I would’ve called you crazy.

Take advantage of the Tigers' fade train while it’s still at the station.

Pick: Saint Mary's -26.5 (Play to -28)