Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike White (Georgia)

No. 16 Alabama vs. No. 12 Auburn takes center stage tonight in the college basketball world, but there's more betting value to key in on.

So, with that in mind, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including Three Man Weave's three picks for Wednesday, February 7. Ky McKeon, time for you to take over!


College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
7 p.m.
8 p.m.
9 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Villanova vs. Xavier

Wednesday, Feb. 7
7 p.m. ET
FS1
Xavier -3

By Ky McKeon

Despite having one of the oldest and most talented rosters in the country on paper, Villanova is currently on the outside of the NCAA tournament picture looking in. A 4-1 Big East start was quickly washed away with five straight losses.

After a win against Providence, Villanova sits 5-6 in the conference, one game back of Xavier.

Both teams have fared better at home this season, and Nova, in particular, has struggled on the road. Just 2-5 straight up and against the spread in true road games, the Cats have lost their past three contests away from Philly by an average of 13.3 points.

Xavier has played short-handed all season (and got more bad news with Jerome Hunter tearing his Achilles in practice after being cleared to return), but somehow it's remained hyper competitive and wrenched its way into the KenPom top 40.

Steady guard play, shooting and, above all, coaching has led the way. Sean Miller’s work this season has been admirable and is in stark contrast to the job Kyle Neptune has done leading his talented roster to a 12-10 mark with losses to three different Philadelphia schools.

Nova snuck by Xavier in game one without the services of Justin Moore. The Cats led nearly the entire way despite losing the turnover battle and glass battle. Xavier shot just 27.8% from deep in that contest and couldn't finish inside the paint — a rarity for a team facing what's been a porous Villanova interior in league play.

Expect shooting to correct for Xavier as it returns to the Cintas Center. The Muskies are the better coached team and should be able to win this one by two possessions.

Abou Ousmane will be a load for Villanova’s bigs to handle on the boards, and Xavier guards Desmond Claude, Dayvion McKnight and Quincy Olivari have been excellent over the past several games.

Pick: Xavier -3 (Play to -3.5)


Missouri State vs. Northern Iowa

Wednesday, Feb. 7
8 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Northern Iowa -4

By Ky McKeon

Tonight’s game in Cedar Falls features two teams seemingly heading in opposite directions. UNI has lost three straight league games while Missouri State has won four in a row.

There's caveats abound in those results, however. UNI played at Drake and Bradley, two of the three best teams in the conference, while Missouri State hosted two home games, beat the worst Valley team (Valpo) on the road and notched a miracle comeback win at SIU after being down double digits with six minutes to play.

This game sets up perfectly as a classic “bounce back spot” for the Panthers. On Saturday, UNI was utterly embarrassed at home against Murray State, losing by 28 and scoring just 43 points.

The result was bizarre to say the least, and even head coach Ben Jacobson is still scratching his head. That game was tied 13-13 with 8:31 left to play in the first half. Murray proceeded to outscore UNI 58-30 the rest of the way.

UNI star guard Bowen Born had zero points against Murray, and you can bet he doesn’t do that again. Born leads the Panthers at 13.8 points per game this year, and he’s proven he can lead his team to victory multiple times. At Missouri State earlier this year, Born poured in 21 points on 9-for-19 shooting.

The first matchup between these two squads came down to the wire, but UNI won the glass battle and created more second chances that ultimately decided the contest. That edge should be there again, as the Panthers won’t give anything on the defensive end, ranking as the sixth-best defensive rebounding team by rate in the country.

Offensively, UNI’s shooting woes will turn. The Panthers are shooting well below their season average from deep and haven’t finished inside as efficiently in Valley play. A second straight home contest to shake the cobwebs off and get right should be just what the doctor ordered.

UNI’s players should be foaming at the mouth to right the ship and get back in the win column. Doing so would put the Panthers a game up on Missouri State and into a virtual tie for fourth in the MVC standings.

Pick: Northern Iowa -4 (Play to -5)

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Georgia vs. Mississippi State

Wednesday, Feb. 7
9 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Georgia +9

By Ky McKeon

Somehow, some way Georgia is flirting with an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Mike White’s crew was picked 12th in the SEC in the preseason, but the Bulldogs have already won four league games in the early going.

Unfortunately, three straight losses has put them in the danger zone, and a win tonight would go a long way towards getting them out.

Mississippi State has struggled too lately — sitting a game behind UGA at 3-6 in the SEC — and head coach Chris Jans has often sounded defeated in post-game pressers.

Last time out, the Starkville Bulldogs were whomped by 32 points at Alabama. In that game fifth-year senior leader D.J. Jeffries went down with an injury, and Jans expects him to miss significant time.

Jeffries isn’t the flashiest player, nor is he a counting stat stud, but he's without a doubt an important cog in the MSU machine. Per CBB Analytics’ on/off metrics, Jeffries ranks second on the team in net rating. At 6-foot-7 with a fungible skillset, Jeffries can play several spots and guard multiple positions. His absence will be felt tonight.

Georgia can hang around in this one. The Bulldogs have already proven their ability to win and compete on the road, and they can cause Miss State’s guards issues when they extend pressure past half court.

Per Synergy, UGA is one of the best pressing teams in the country this season, whereas Miss State has struggled to break pressure. Per KenPom, no team has turned the ball over at a higher rate in SEC play than the MSU Bulldogs.

With Jeffries on the pine and Georgia being able to bother its opponent with pressure, an eight- or nine-point spread is simply too high.

UGA has more than enough shooting and offensive pop to keep this game close and even sneak out a win in the waning seconds.

Pick: Georgia +9 (Play to +8)

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Nick Sterling
May 21, 2024 UTC