With 135 games on the Saturday college basketball card, you may need some help navigating it.
So our experts have dissected it all and given out their favorite play of the day, starting with Iowa State and Texas at 2 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 8 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
Ken Barkley: Iowa State PK at Texas
2 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This may seem like a trap, but really Texas is just all over the map from a profile standpoint, and that’s what is creating a supposedly fishy line. Kerwin Roach isn’t returning to play in this game, and Dylan Osetkowski is questionable with the flu. Despite neither one playing against Baylor, they took the Bears to overtime at their place, which is probably what’s creating this number.
As scrappy as the Longhorns are, and as much as they “need” the game from an NCAA Tournament standpoint, Iowa State is just significantly better and has played very well on the road in conference play with wins at Lubbock and at Manhattan and a close loss at the Phog. Austin is a picnic compared to those places. Handicapping motivation is not possible, so don’t get too wrangled by Texas’ spot. I’ll take Iowa State in a game where the Cyclones should probably be a small favorite.
Stuckey: Denver +5 vs. Nebraska Omaha
3 p.m. ET
This isn't pretty by any stretch, but it's probably my favorite spot of the day.
After getting upset on Thursday at Oral Roberts, Omaha essentially blew its chance at a share of the regular season title. The Mavericks now basically know they will be the No. 2 seed in the Summit Conference Tournament. They do technically still have an outside shot at a No. 1 seed and a shared conference title, but that scenario involves South Dakota State losing at home as 17.5-point favorites to Western Illinois.
Speaking of Western Illinois, if it loses to SDSU, Denver would leap frog the Leathernecks to take the final spot in the Summit conference tourney. (Only eight of the nine teams qualify.)
Denver has this new life as a result of a shocking 28-point win over WIU this past Saturday, which came after seven consecutive losses.
Also, as a result of the elevation, Denver has one of the best home-court advantages in D-1. In fact, Denver has been the fourth-most profitable home team to bet on since 2005.
And it's an even tougher trip when a team has to visit the Pioneers for its third straight road game, which Omaha will do today.
I just don't think Omaha shows up after that disappointing loss on Thursday with its seed basically sealed for the conference tourney. And I think you get an inspired Denver effort at home in a do-or-die situation. I think the Pioneers carry their momentum over and will have a shot at the outright win.
John Ewing: Troy +3.5 vs. Texas Arlington
Troy has been awful all season, especially for bettors (7-14-1 ATS). Texas Arlington, on the other hand, has been one of the most profitable teams in college basketball (17-9 ATS).
Few gamblers will want to back the Trojans, but poor ATS teams have been undervalued when facing a good ATS team in conference. Oddsmakers will inflate lines for teams that have been covering the spread knowing that the public is more likely to bet them. This system has been a consistent winner year to year and not only matches Troy-UT Arlington, but four other plays this weekend.
Mike Randle: UNC -5 at Clemson
6 p.m. ET, ESPN
Want an under-the-radar college basketball fact? The Tar Heels are a perfect 7-0 against the spread on the road in ACC play, and it hasn’t been particularly close. North Carolina has covered its conference road games by an average of 13.5 points.
The Tar Heels head to Clemson to face a Tigers offense that has been one of the worst in ACC play. Clemson ranks 11th in conference play in adjusted offensive efficiency and a pitiful 13th in turnovers per game.
Defensively, Clemson will need to slow down a UNC offense clicking on all cylinders. The Tar Heels have been efficient from 2P (51.4%) but lethal from 3P (38%) in conference play. Guard Coby White (15.9 ppg) torched Syracuse for 34 points, shooting 54% (6 of 11) from 3 and a perfect 10 for 10 from the foul line. Leading scorer Cam Johnson (16.7 ppg) has been ultra-consistent with nine consecutive games of double-digit scoring.
A perfect conference road ATS record is tough to ignore, especially when the Tar Heels are playing at such a high level. North Carolina has won four straight games and 11 of its past 12. Take UNC to cover the small spread and run the Tigers off the court.
Steve Petrella: Memphis +10 at Cincinnati
8 p.m. ET, ESPNU
A few weeks ago, it felt like you couldn't go wrong betting against Memphis. But the Tigers have really turned things around, winning five of their past six games, most by convincing margins. They've posted above-average offensive efficiencies in those five wins, as well, without having to rely on the deep ball (they haven't shot over 40% in any of those games).
Memphis played Cincinnati tight in their first matchup, losing by five at home, without an outstanding offensive performance. The Bearcats have won just a single game by double digits in the past five weeks, and that will continue on Saturday.
Eli Hershkovich: Georgia +11.5 at Florida
8:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The Bulldogs (16-12 against the spread) have covered in four straight games despite losing all of them outright — and three by one possession. They’ll be highly motivated in Gainesville because of that streak, along with having revenge on their minds after being dealt a 10-point loss by the Gators on Jan. 19.
In that one, Florida controlled the tempo from the opening tip, using its ultra-slow pace to breakdown Georgia’s defense en route to a 10-of-27 (37.0%) shooting performance from the perimeter. Mike White’s squad averages the second-most 3-point attempts per game in SEC play despite only shooting 33.2% from that vicinity.
Look for the Bulldogs, yielding the fourth-lowest perimeter scoring rate (29.6%) during their conference stretch, to generate a much-improved defensive performance in this go-around.
Moreover, Georgia’s most effective offense comes from attacking the rim, led by the 6-foot-11 Nicolas Claxton (12.8 points per game), notching the 30th-highest free-throw rate (39.7%) in the nation. Florida has struggled to stay out of foul trouble throughout the campaign, so the Bulldogs boast a clear-cut advantage in that department.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Gators are 0-6 ATS at home as a double-digit favorite this season. Expect Bulldogs coach Tom Crean to continue to exhibit his odd facial expressions while leading them to their fifth-straight cover.
