Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks, Predictions: Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal Betting Preview
Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech)
- Iowa State squares off against Texas Tech in a Big 12 quarterfinal matchup.
- The Cyclones and Red Raiders are two of the slowest-paced teams in the league and are two squads that rely heavily on defense.
- D.J. James breaks down the game and explains where the value lies.
Updated Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 125.5 -110o / -110u | +315 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 125.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
Texas Tech will duel with a fellow slow-paced Big 12 team in the Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Iowa State beat the Red Raiders in early January in a slugfest, but Texas Tech got revenge at home later in the month.
These two teams thrive defensively, but the Red Raiders tout a bit more efficiency on offense. With Kevin McCullar likely returning to the lineup, per coach Mark Adams, Texas Tech receives another jolt to its offense.
TTU coach Adams on McCullar: "I think he's as healthy as he's been in a while. Thank goodness. … TJ, is I won't say 100%, but he's better than he's been a while. So we're excited about our team getting our guys back together and getting our veterans back out there playing."
— Carlos Silva Jr. (@cmsilvajr) March 9, 2022
Meanwhile, Iowa State squeaked out a few games in a row against the bottom end of the Big 12, before dropping two straight to Oklahoma State and Baylor.
Look for Texas Tech to win this game by a sizeable amount.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State’s defense is its bread-and-butter, as the Clones rank 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
They are able to turn opponents over at the sixth-best rate in the country (24.6%), and they limit the opposition to less than 30% on 3s this season.
However, these numbers can be a little misleading.
Per ShotQuality, the Cyclones rank 293rd in Open 3 Rate and 286th in Rim & 3 Rate. This means that they have been lucky despite leaving teams open on the perimeter.
In addition, ISU cannot rebound on offense or defense. Its offensive rebounding rate is 28.8%, while it limits other teams it has played to around 28.4%.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, averages 34% and 26.2%, respectively. In fact, the Red Raiders average about 4.3 more rebounds per game than the Cyclones. Expect this to be a factor in Thursday's matchup
Iowa State went 7-11 in regular-season Big 12 play for a reason: it cannot produce anything on offense. The Clones' only slightly-redeemable quality is 2-point shooting (51.1%), but this ranks 123rd in the NCAA.
Izaiah Brockington and Tyrese Hunter are the best offensive threats for the Cyclones, but those are the only two players averaging in double digits.
Texas Tech is not necessarily strong offensively; Iowa State is just that weak.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Building off of that sentiment, Texas Tech excels in the paint. Per ShotQuality, it ranks 19th in Finishing at the Rim. The Red Raiders shoot 55.2% inside the arc, and have produced over 55% of their total points on 2-pointers.
Also, Iowa State is one of the worst teams in college hoops when it comes to fouling. The Clones rank 313th in doing so.
Texas Tech produces over 20% of its total points at the strike. Kevin Obanor and Bryson Williams are the usual suspects in getting to the line. Davion Warren and McCullar also get fouled at a decent rate.
With Obanor and Williams inside and a major size advantage in favor of the Red Raiders, expect to see TTU shooting free throws often.
Lastly, both teams have issues turning it over — the Red Raiders rank 290th and the Cyclones rank 288th in this category. TTU turns opponents over at the 11th-highest rate in the nation, so there should not be much of an edge here for either team.
The Cyclones typically bank on this edge, though, so if anything, this plays into Texas Tech’s hands.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
Iowa State has few offensive threats. No, Texas Tech cannot shoot very well from beyond the arc, but the opportunities it will have are likely to be open looks.
Adding some deep makes will be the cherry on top of a dominant interior performance that is to come from the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has a significant advantage in the frontcourt.
The Red Raiders should be able to cover this line in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament.
Pick: Texas Tech -7 (Play to -8)
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