The ACC-Big Ten Challenge sits in a deadlock after eight games, including a destructive performance from Duke against Indiana and Louisville's upset win over Michigan State.
North Carolina faces Michigan in a stellar matchup Wednesday evening, but not before Florida State takes on Purdue in another top 25 showdown. Let's break down each contest.
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Betting Odds: Purdue-Florida State
- Odds: Florida State -4.5
- Over/Under: 149.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
The Seminoles (3-2 against the spread) boast the 15th-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation, yet they displayed a key flaw in 66-60 loss to Villanova on Sunday.
Wildcats' guards Collin Gillespie and Phil Booth both dissected Florida State off the bounce to the tune of 29 combined points (10-of-18 shooting). The Boilermakers (4-2 ATS) enter Tallahassee, Fla. with Carsen Edwards, one of the best floor generals in college basketball.
The 6-foot-1, 200-pound Edwards is an efficient scorer (56.6 Effective Field Goal Percentage) given his 19.0 field goal attempts per game. He and his teammates can force Seminoles' turnovers (21.4 Turnover Percentage) while generating much of their offense in the open floor. Florida State's Trent Forrest (27.3%) and M.J. Walker (26.2) have struggled in the turnover department.
Purdue showcases the sixth-highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the country, too. FSU has been vulnerable inside the arc, with opponents shooting 50.8% percent. Matt Painter's group should look to play inside-out through the 7-foot-3 Matt Harms in halfcourt sets, attempting to get the 7-foot-4 Christ Koumadje into foul trouble before finding their 3-point stroke (39.0%).
The Boilermakers went 3-5-1 ATS (37.5%) as an underdog over the past 3 regular seasons, per our Bet Labs data. Expect them to get right on the road tonight.
THE PICK: Purdue +4.5; Under 149.5
North Carolina-Michigan
- Odds: Michigan -3
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Speaking of miscues, the Tar Heels (4-1-2 ATS) racked up a 21.2 Turnover Percentage in their loss Texas on Thanksgiving. But they were minus guard Seventh Woods, who is set to return after clearing concussion protocol.
Woods' presence will give the 6-foot-5, 185-pound Coby White opportunities to play off-ball. White owns a 56.8 eFG% while delivering supreme confidence from behind the arc (43.9%), and he improved his composure against UCLA with just two turnovers.
Both programs exhibit drastically different tempos, as North Carolina runs at the second-highest Average Possession Length (12.9 seconds) in the country while the Wolverines (3-3 ATS) operate at 17.8 Seconds Per Possession, 247th nationally. Even though Michigan point guard Zavier Simpson is one of the premier on-ball defenders in the sport, White and Woods will frustrate Simpson and the Wolverines' first-ranked AjD by limiting their mistakes and utilizing the 32nd-highest team eFG% (56.2%) in Division I.
The Tar Heels should benefit from their seventh-ranked Offensive Rebounding Rate (40.0%) as well, thanks to the frontcourt of Cameron Johnson, Garrison Brooks and Luke Maye delivering a slight size advantage over Michigan's starting bunch. Johnson will create havoc for Wolverines forwards Ignas Brazdeikis and Jon Teske via his inside-out prowess.
UNC was 1-3-1 ATS (25.0%) as an underdog in the 2017-18 regular season, but Roy Williams' squad will begin to reverse that trend in Ann Arbor, Mich.
THE PICK: UNC +3
