Eastern Washington-San Francisco Betting Preview: Dons’ Size Will Be Too Much for Eagles

Besides Villanova-Penn and LSU-Houston, we've been treated to a frail slate of college basketball games this week. But Thursday night presents an upstart program that many aren't aware of.

Not only is San Francisco giving away free popcorn after Dons guard Frankie Ferrari stole some from a fan last week, but it's also taking on 1-7 Eastern Washington. Which side presents more value? Let's breakdown the matchup.

Eastern Washington Eagles at San Francisco Dons

• Spread: San Francisco -18.5
• Over/under: 139.5
• Tip: 10 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TheW.tv

The Dons (5-2-2 against the spread) proved they can hang around with mid-major darling Buffalo on Dec. 1, losing 85-81 in Belfast, Northern Ireland to push the spread.

Positioned in what's been in a two-bid West Coast Conference in the past, with the likes of Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU, Kyle Smith's team would likely need an upset of the Bulldogs and a pair of wins against the Gaels and Cougars to secure an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament. But it also can't afford a mishap against the Eagles (1-6 ATS) on Thursday.

What's guided Smith's crew to a surprising 8-1 start has been its No. 24-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (94.1 opponents' Points Per 100 Possessions).

Within that metric, San Francisco is holding its opponents to the 13th-lowest Effective Field Goal Percentage (42.8%) in college basketball. On the flip side, Eastern Washington owns the 19th-worst eFG% (43.2%), as the Eagles boast just two major contributors shooting above 32.4% from behind the arc.

San Fran has limited its opponents to the second-lowest Offensive Rebounding Rate (19.5%) in the country, too. Given its major size advantage, it shouldn't have a problem continuing that success against an Eastern Washington bunch amassing a mere 22.6 Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

The 6-foot-8, 232-pound Matt McCarthy (11.9 points per game) will have a field day in the paint at both ends, as the Dons owns the third-highest 2-point percentage (60.3%) in Division I with 56.5% of their scoring coming from inside the perimeter. No one in the Eastern Washington rotation is taller than 6-foot-7, so I'm expecting much of USF's damage to come down low yet again.

According to our Bet Labs data, San Francisco is 2-1-1 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite this season, and Eastern Washington is 0-5 ATS in its past five games against teams with winning records. Expect another convincing win for USF.

While the under also seems tasty, opponents look to score on the Eagles quickly, averaging 16.5 seconds per possession. Considering the Dons won't have much of an issue in that department, I'm staying away.

PICK: San Francisco -18.5