College Basketball NIT Odds & Picks for Missouri State vs. Oklahoma: Value Lies on Total
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marvin Johnson.
- After just missing out on the NCAA Tournament, No. 1 seed Oklahoma hosts Missouri State in the first round of the NIT.
- The Sooners won four of five down the stretch of the season, but still missed out on the Big Dance.
- Here's how our staff is betting this NIT affair.
Missouri State vs. Oklahoma Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | +188 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | -230 |
A one-point overtime loss to Drake in Arch Madness ended Missouri State’s road to the NCAA Tournament after it finished third in the conference standings.
The Bears will travel to an NIT top seed in Oklahoma.
The Sooners are known for having sparse crowds in the Lloyd Noble Center, giving the chance for Missouri State fans to make the four-hour trip down Interstate 44 to support their team.
Oklahoma had long stretches of losses during Big 12 play this season before winning four straight, including a conference tournament game over Baylor. Victories over the Bears, Texas Tech and Arkansas were not enough to propel Oklahoma as a “Last Four In” team for the NCAA Tournament.
The Sooners opened as a 6-point favorite over Missouri State with a total of 138. The biggest question may be motivation for an Oklahoma team that has more than a half-dozen seniors in the rotation.
Missouri State Bears
Missouri State is a very interesting team that can give anybody trouble down low. It has the 12th-highest post-up frequency in the country and ranks top-25 in terms of PPP in those post-up sets, pick and roll and isolation, per ShotQuality.
Because it runs those three sets at a high frequency, a large share of its possessions do come in the half-court. But the Bears are incredibly efficient, ranking 12th in the nation in terms of points per possession.
Defensively, Missouri State is not going to be able to exploit Oklahoma’s main weakness of turning the ball over at an incredibly high rate, but it will be able to defend at the rim. The Bears finished as the No. 1 team in the MVC in 2-point field-goal percentage allowed and third in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim, which is mainly where most of Oklahoma’s shots come from.
Missouri State got bounced by Drake in the second round of the MVC Tournament in heartbreaking fashion, losing in overtime, 79-78. So, my guess is it’s not going to want to end its season on that note.
Oklahoma Sooners
By Doug Ziefel
The Sooners are a team coming into this tournament with a renewed sense of confidence as they finally regained their form down the stretch of the regular season and carried it into the Big 12 Conference Tournament.
Oklahoma is a team that we always knew was better than its 7-11 conference record portrayed. It finished the season 48th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency while racking up multiple quality wins over the likes of Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Arkansas.
Its offense can be very potent at times, as the trio of Tanner Groves, Jordan Goldwire and Umoja Gibson lead the way for Oklahoma inside the arc. The Sooners finished sixth in 2-point percentage.
Oklahoma is a team that deserved a No. 1 seed and would have been a tournament team if not for its midseason slump. However, the Sooners’ strong finish should propel them in this matchup.
Missouri State vs. Oklahoma Betting Pick
Tempo and a lack of clean shots may lead to a low-scoring game.
Both teams rank outside the top 220 in average offensive possession length, along with offensive free throw rates that are outside of the top 250.
Oklahoma prefers to run an offense that features plenty of cuts across the paint with the goal of finishing at the rim.
The Sooners have struggled all season with efficiency on offense, ranking 187th in finishing at the rim and 183rd in catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.
Missouri State ended the season top-40 in defensive rebounds, indicating no easy putbacks will await the Sooners.
There are similar offensive issues for Missouri State awaiting in Norman. The Bears love isolation, off-the-dribble 3-pointers and post-up play calls. The Sooners excel at all three of the areas on defense, ranking top-30 in each individual category.
KenPom projects the game to close at 145 points, well off the current market number of 138.5.
This is a game that features two slow-paced offenses where the defenses have the upper hand. Considering neither offense is good at drawing fouls, this is an under play.
With the KenPom projection higher, there may be a reason to wait on this number to be steamed within hours of tip-off. Anything above the opening number is worth a betting ticket.
Pick: Under 138.5 (Play to 137)
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