Cleveland State vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Pick for Tuesday

After blasting Davidson at home, 89-55, I thought Saint Mary’s had turned a corner. The Gaels would finally return to their status among the elite mid-major teams.

Alas, they followed up that big win with consecutive losses to Utah and Boise State.

The Gaels are in free fall, sitting at 3-5 entering this home matchup with the ever-dangerous Cleveland State Vikings, who are fresh off a Horizon League Championship game run.

Here's our college basketball odds and a pick for Cleveland State vs. Saint Mary's on Tuesday, Dec. 5.

The Vikings are a veteran-led squad that should compete for the Horizon again.

The returning forward combination of Tristan Enaruna and Tae Williams has been excellent, combining for 29 points and 12 rebounds per game. Throw in returning guard Drew Lowder’s 13 points per game, and the Vikings have a big three to work with.

More importantly, the 3s are falling, something the Vikings struggled mightily with last year. After shooting 30% from deep last season, these Vikings are shooting 36% through nine 2023 contests.

More importantly, they’re generating plenty of unguarded jumpers (53.4% of all jumpers, 80th percentile) and making them (1.34 PPP, 91st percentile).

It’s easy to generate open jumpers when your most important forward — Enaruna — makes 47% of his long balls. Cleveland State can invert the floor.

That said, the Vikings don’t shoot many 3s, so their improved shooting doesn’t significantly affect their overall results.

Instead, Cleveland State wins by winning the extras. The Vikings dominate the offensive glass (36th nationally in offensive rebounding rate) while using several mismatching defensive looks to generate turnovers (83rd in defensive turnover rate) and transition buckets.

The Vikings are still struggling to rebound on the defensive end of the floor (347th in defensive rebounding rate after ranking 358th last year), and it’s easy to score on the interior against them if you take care of the ball and dribble-penetrate past their perimeter defenders.

Cleveland State is 1-1 in Horizon play after a brutal road loss to Youngstown State (94-69) and an OK home win over lowly Detroit (69-58).

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It’s continuous shooting woes for Saint Mary’s.

The Gaels are still shooting under 30% from 3 on the year. After bouncing back in a big way against Davidson (15-for-31 from 3, 48%), they fell back into their ways in a three-point semi-road loss to Boise State (2-for-14 from 3, 14.3%).

Saint Mary’s should make more shots. It's generating loads of unguarded jumpers, but its scoring only 1.01 PPP on those attempts (31st percentile). ShotQuality projects the Gaels should be shooting closer to 35% from deep based on the “quality” of attempts.

The Gaels are an uber-disciplined team under Randy Bennett, which bodes well in a matchup against Cleveland State. For example, you can’t grab rebounds against Mitchell Saxen, Harry Wessels, Alex Ducas and Joshua Jefferson, as Saint Mary’s swallows everything up.

However, the Gaels’ turnover issues are uncharacteristic of a Bennett-led team and horrific for this matchup. The Gales rank 230th nationally in offensive turnover rate, so they’re struggling to create interior offense.

The guards can’t dribble penetrate, and Saxen isn’t scoring efficiently in the post for a post-heavy offense, which is brutal against a Vikings team that viciously denies post opportunities.

Saint Mary’s defense has been largely fine. The Gaels run a drop-coverage scheme, denying shooters (14th nationally in 3-point rate allowed) and forcing shots into the mid-range. They're forcing low-quality mid-range attempts (85th nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate Allowed) but are fouling too often.

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If Saint Mary’s fumbles the ball often — which it has been — the Gaels could get cooked by Cleveland State’s aggressive defense. Saint Mary’s won’t get the ball into Saxen for post-up opportunities, so it’ll get no easy buckets.

However, the Gaels will also get back on defense, as they allow almost no transition buckets (6.0 fast-break points allowed per game, 91st percentile). Even if it generates turnovers, I don’t think Cleveland State can turn defense into offense.

Actually, I’m unsure if the Vikings will generate any offense. They won’t create second-chance points against the Gaels' interior rebounders or see open 3-point shots against the Gaels’ drop-coverage scheme.

As mentioned, Bennett’s drop-coverage forces opposing ball-handlers and shot attempts into the mid-range. Cleveland State loves shooting in the mid-range, taking over 10 mid-range attempts per game (85th percentile). Theoretically, that’s good for this matchup, except the Vikings are shooting less than 30% from the area.

The key for Saint Mary's in this game is 3-point shooting. If the Gaels see some positive shooting regression — which they're due for — they'll produce enough points — while relying on a good defensive matchup — to win by double-digits.

If they don’t, I think this game will fly under, as neither team will have any accessible avenues to offense.

I’m actually going to take a shot and split a unit on both Saint Mary’s and the Under.

Cleveland State shouldn’t score, so if Saint Mary’s makes shots and controls the pace, the Gales could cover while keeping the game under because of limited possessions.

At the minimum, large favorites and unders are negatively correlated, so we’re diversifying risk by betting on both.

For what it’s worth, the ShotQualityBets model projects Saint Mary’s as a 15.5-point favorite and the total at 132, so there’s some slight value on both lines via that model. Our Action PRO Model projects Saint Mary's as a whopping 16-point favorite, making me more confident in the Gaels.

And, of course, this is a pretty obvious bounce-back spot for Saint Mary's, off back-to-back tough losses and facing a low-major at home.

Pick: Saint Mary's -14 or Better | Under 133 or Better

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