Georgia Southern vs Michigan State Odds, Pick

Michigan State's season isn't off to an ideal start. The 3-3 Spartans are heavily favored in this matchup, but have some glaring holes. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is 0-6.

However, MSU’s strengths won't outweigh its weaknesses, so expect the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover the spread.

The Eagles don't do much well, but they shoot plenty of 3s. In fact, they rank seventh in 3-point attempt rate on offense and are shooting 32.6% from deep.

Jamar Franklin, Deuce Dean and Derrick Harris Jr. are the players to watch in this game, as all three are shooting over 36% from deep.

Michigan State ranks 310th in offensive 3-point attempt rate and 256th in allowed 3-point attempt rate. The Spartans ranks 152nd in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, so the Eagles will have chances beyond the arc. MSU also doesn't make many 3s (26.8%), so the Eagles have an edge with the deep ball.

Adding on, Georgia Southern, shockingly, ranks 19th in Rim & 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. MSU ranks 87th in the metric defensively and 327th offensively.

That means that Georgia Southern is taking more reasonable shots, which could cut into MSU’s advantage.

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The Spartans also have issues on the glass. They rank 165th in offensive rebounding rate and 226th in allowed offensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, the Eagles rank 125th and 337th.

MSU has faced Arizona — one of the best rebounding teams in the country — but these numbers still don't provide the usual advantage for a power-conference team in a matchup like this.

The Spartans should easily carry the turnover advantage in this game, as they only turn it over 15.3% of the time on offense (65th in the country). Defensively, they rank 150th in turning opponents over. Georgia Southern will also hand them the ball often, as the Eagles rank 299th in offensive turnover rate.

Finally, MSU will have home-court advantage and may get some favorable calls. However, the Spartans are manufacturing 19.6% of their points from the free-throw line, while Georgia Southern gets 19.9% of its points from the line.

The Eagles shoot 76.4% from the line and MSU only shoots 67.7%, so that could even out as the game progresses.

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Michigan State will win this game, but there are a few areas in which Georgia Southern has an advantage. If the Eagles can hit some open 3s, rebound and hit their free throws, they should cover.

Take Georgia Southern from +26.5, and play it to +23.5.

Pick: Georgia Southern +26.5 (Play to +23.5)