La Salle vs Miami Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Miami Hurricanes haven't looked like the team that made a Final Four run in the 2023 NCAA tournament. They've dropped games by 20-plus points to both Kentucky and Colorado, but this matchup is a nice bounce-back spot for them against the La Salle Explorers.

La Salle lost to Duke by nearly 30 points, and this is the only team it's played that looks similar in talent to the Hurricanes. In addition, La Salle ranks 256th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, so they won't be able to stop the best facet of the Hurricanes' attack.

La Salle does one thing well, and that's shooting 3s. The Explorers launch 3s at a 40.5% rate and are hitting them 35.9% of the time.

However, these 3s aren't necessarily open. Per ShotQuality, the Explorers rank 148th in Open 3 Rate on offense. They rank 180th in Catch and Shoot 3s (points per possession) and 316th in Off the Dribble 3s (points per possession).

Miami ranks 147th in Open 3 Rate defensively, so expect the Explorers to knock some of these shots down. That said, opponents are only shooting 26.5% from deep on the Canes, so their defense is not too shabby on the perimeter.

The Explorers also can't score inside. They're shooting 49.3% from 2-point range and they rank 272nd in free-throw attempt rate. Miami doesn't foul often, ranking fourth on defense, so the Explorers likely won't get many freebies.

However, opponents are shooting 53.6% on the Hurricanes inside the arc. La Salle ranks 186th in points per possession offensively at the rim. Miami ranks 120th defensively. Expect Miami to have a slight edge in this department because La Salle is so weak on the interior.

Use the Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting college basketball.

One detriment to Miami has been size. The Canes have a couple of big men who get 50%+ of their minutes, but outside of Norchad Omier, not many are crashing the glass often. This leads to the Hurricanes ranking 238th offensively on the boards and 256th defensively.

Luckily for Miami, this is also an area the Explorers struggle. La Salle ranks 240th in offensive rebounding and 206th defensively. Neither are strong on the glass, so there shouldn't be much of an advantage for either team.

Miami’s offense is its source of strength. The Canes rank seventh in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, shooting 42.3% from deep and 55.7% from inside the arc. They rank 52nd in points per possession at the rim (ShotQuality), while the Explorers rank 199th defensively.

Adding on, Miami ranks 20th in PPP on Catch and Shoot 3s. La Salle ranks 114th defensively. Miami ranks 14th in PPP on Off the Dribble 3s. La Salle ranks 44th defensively.

Finally, Miami ranks 132nd in Open 3 Rate, but La Salle ranks 245th. Essentially, if the Hurricanes are taking 3s, they have a good shot of being open and scoring more often than the Explorers.

Miami doesn't manufacture many points from the free-throw line, but neither does La Salle. On the other hand, the Hurricanes are shooting almost 79% as a unit, even though they rank 235th in free-throw attempt rate.

La Salle ranks 107th in free-throw attempt rate defensively, so with this game being at Miami, the Hurricanes should score more often from the strike.

Miami has been a letdown, which tends to happen with teams who got hot at the right time in the NCAA tournament the year prior.

Still, La Salle has so many holes defensively, which the Hurricanes will exploit.

The Explorers have weaknesses in the same areas as the Hurricanes, so they won't have many edges in this game.

Take Miami to win this to -16.5. The Canes should have a bounce-back performance.

Pick: Miami -14.5 (Play to -16.5)