FAU vs UAB Odds, Pick: Why to Back Home ‘Dog

Two old rivals from Conference USA will meet for the first time as American Athletic Conference members Thursday, as FAU looks to pull into a tie for first place in the league when it faces UAB on the road.

Last season’s surprise Final Four team has made a seamless transition to the AAC this season by owning an 8-1 conference mark and sitting a half-game behind USF for the top spot. The Blazers are 6-3 in AAC play, which includes a perfect 4-0 mark at home, but UAB will be looking to avenge a loss in Boca Raton last month.

Last season, FAU didn’t reach top-30 status on KenPom until early March, and closed at 17th in the country despite finishing one game short of the national championship game.

Heading into Thursday’s matchup in Birmingham, Dusty May’s squad is 28th in the KenPom rankings, which is nearly 100 spots higher than UAB, which sits at 127th.

FAU is the most efficient offensive team in the AAC, ranking first in 2-point percentage (54.5%) and third in both 3-point shooting (37.1%) and free-throw shooting (75.4%) in conference play.

The Owls’ lone loss came at Charlotte in the second game of conference action as FAU erased a 17-point deficit to lead by two with four minutes left before falling 70-68. Since that defeat, however, FAU has won seven straight games since.

The Owls still own a dreadful 2-7 record against the spread in conference play. One of those ATS losses came in an 86-73 victory over UAB as 15.5-point home favorites in mid-January. Granted, the Owls led by as many as 22 points before the Blazers cut into that deficit late to grab the cover. 

The two keys to victory for FAU on that Sunday afternoon were limiting UAB to 5-of-26 shooting from 3-point range and converting on 61% of its 2-point attempts. Johnell Davis torched the Blazers for 30 points in that win, but the two lowest-scoring games in AAC play for Davis have come on the road. Davis was limited to 14 points in wins at Tulane and Rice.

Here’s something to keep an eye on for in-game wagering with FAU: The Owls have trailed by seven points or more in five AAC games, coming back to win outright four times.

With the departure of Houston, Cincinnati and UCF to the Big 12, there was going to be a new top team in the AAC this season. FAU and Charlotte are among the teams to beat that came over from Conference USA, along with UAB.

The Blazers overcame a 4-5 start to the season to move to 14-8, and they have not lost consecutive games in AAC play. UAB has played the second-toughest schedule in conference play, compared to 13th for FAU. The Blazers handed USF its only AAC loss, while its three defeats are to FAU, Charlotte and SMU, which are all sitting in the top five of the conference.

Andy Kennedy’s team sits in the middle of the conference in 2-point percentage (seventh) and 3-point percentage (eighth) but ranks first in free-throw shooting (75.5%).

Efrem Johnson has stepped up of late for the Blazers by averaging 16.6 points per game the last three games. UAB leading scorer Eric Gaines (12.2 points per game) has been inconsistent in AAC play by putting up 10.6 points per game in nine games.

The Blazers have been fantastic in the underdog role this season at 8-1 against the spread. UAB has won five of those games outright, including beating Memphis and Drake as home ‘dogs.

UAB is several blown leads away from being in the top three of the AAC. The Blazers threw away a 20-point lead in a loss at Charlotte and a 12-point second-half lead at SMU. But UAB rallied from a 10-point deficit at Tulane and dug out of a 17-point hole at North Texas in wins, so nothing has been easy for the Blazers.

FAU built a huge lead in its last matchup against UAB and settled for a double-digit win despite not covering as a heavy favorite.

It's hard to ignore two key trends here. The Owls are 1-4 against the spread as a road favorite, while the Blazers have been terrific in the underdog role this season.

Let's back UAB here as a home 'dog in this rematch with FAU.

Pick: UAB +4.5 (Play to +4)