College Basketball Pick & Prediction for Nebraska vs Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been kryptonite for top teams in the Big Ten, especially after firing Chris Holtmann. The Buckeyes are now set to host the Nebraska Cornhuskers, although it is unclear if Jamison Battle, one of OSU’s most reliable scorers and rebounders, will be available (ankle).

Nebraska can hit the outside shot and boasts a better defense, so I expect the Cornhuskers to keep this within arm’s reach.

Nebraska is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers are shooting 36.1% from deep and launch a ton of 3s. Ohio State has a porous perimeter defense as it's allowing opponents to shoot almost 36% from outside. OSU does a pretty good job of preventing 3-point opportunities, but the Buckeyes don't defend the arc well enough to overcome how often the Cornhuskers shoot from 3.

Nebraska’s biggest issue — on both offense and defense — is rebounding. However, if Battle is hobbled or out, that will eliminate one of Ohio State's best rebounders. If Nebraska can put a body on Felix Okpara, the Cornhuskers will negate Ohio State's advantage on the glass.

Ohio State likes to get the ball inside and ranks in the top 20 in points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality. Defensively, Nebraska ranks in the top 35 in this metric. The Cornhuskers hold opponents to just 45.1% shooting from 2-point range and allow plenty of 3s. Since OSU predominantly scores from 2-point range, the Cornhuskers will have the defensive antidote.

OSU does like using the post-up, though. The Buckeyes default to this option often and Nebraska isn't the best at defending the post-up, so that's one concern for those backing the Cornhuskers.

OSU is relatively efficient when taking shots from3-point range and Nebraska gives up a lot of 3s, but the Cornhuskers rank third in the nation in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. Additionally, Battle is one of the more efficient deep shooters on the Buckeyes.

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Ohio State might be a bit shorthanded, so checking Battle’s status is key before betting this game. On the other hand, OSU’s perimeter defense won't keep up with the onslaught of 3s from Nebraska. The Cornhuskers can defend the rim enough to keep this game within a possession, so play them to a pick ‘em. If Battle is playing, take the Cornhuskers to +1.

Pick: Nebraska +2.5 | Play to +1 if Jamison Battle Plays. Play to PK if He's Out.