NCAAB Odds, Pick for South Carolina vs Mississippi State

South Carolina duels Mississippi State on Saturday, March 9, at 2:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network. Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for South Carolina vs Mississippi State.

Mississippi State and No. 17 South Carolina will battle in Starkville on Saturday afternoon in a crucial SEC showdown.

The Bulldogs enter this game needing another win over a ranked foe to cement their spot in the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are in a four-way tie for the remaining three spots in the conference tournament that earn the important double-bye.

With two great defensive squads desperate for a win, this should be an SEC slugfest at Humphrey Coliseum.

In just his second year with the program, coach Lamont Paris has guided his team to one of the best turnarounds in the country. He has South Carolina in prime position to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Final Four squad back in 2017.

The Gamecocks are one of 18 teams in the nation with multiple top-10 victories this season. They are also one of just five teams with a road win against a top-five opponent.

One of the keys to this surprising campaign has been the stout defense. South Carolina has held 23 opponents below 70 points, which leads the SEC and is in the top five nationally.

On the offensive end of the floor, the Gamecocks are spearheaded by the dynamic duo of Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack. The two combine to average 27.4 points, nine rebounds and 4.4 assists per game.

If you asked Chris Jans a couple of weeks ago, he would have confidently told you his team was in the field for the NCAA tournament. However, the Bulldogs have lost three straight, which has now made Selection Sunday a bit more stressful.

Coming into this game, Mississippi State is still projected in the field in 89 of the bracketology publications, according to Bracket Matrix. That puts the Bulldogs as a 9- or 10-seed with no room to spare.

The Bulldogs could use another Quad 1 victory to ease the stress, and they will need Josh Hubbard to have another big game to do so. The freshman guard has been one of the best offensive players in the SEC, leading the conference in 3-pointers made per game (3.1) and ranking in the top 10 in scoring (16.4 PPG).

As I mentioned in the opening section, these are two teams that pride themselves on being elite defensively, so I think this is going to be a struggle for both offenses.

My best bet is for this game to fall under the total of 135 at PointsBet, which I would play down to 132.

Starting first with Mississippi State, this is another classic Jans team. The Bulldogs rank in the top five in the SEC at home in conference play in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, EFG% allowed, points per possession allowed and opponent 3-point percentage, according to Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense is still average at home. In league action, Jans’ squad ranks around the middle of the pack in those same categories offensively.

South Carolina’s defense travels with it on the road. Away from home in conference games, the Gamecocks rank in the top four in the categories above. However, Paris’ offense drops off on the road compared to at home. South Carolina is below league average in most statistical categories away from home in SEC play.

Another key factor in this handicap is that neither one of these teams likes to play with a lot of pace offensively. Mississippi State ranks 197th in tempo, according to KenPom, while South Carolina is 354th out of 362 teams in pace of play.

The previous meeting went under, and I could see the same happening again here.

Pick: Under 133.5 (Play to 132)