NCAAB Odds, Pick for Vanderbilt vs Tennessee

No. 8 Tennessee and Vanderbilt meet on Saturday for an in-state battle on the hardwood.

The Volunteers are one of the teams in the hunt for a SEC regular season title, as they own an 8-3 record in league play.

Meanwhile, the Commodores have struggled this year, but they're coming off a buzzer-beating win over Texas A&M on Tuesday.

This rivalry has had great games and stars, but I’m not sure this edition will be a classic at the Food City Center.

After consecutive trips to the NIT quarterfinals, things haven't gone to plan for coach Jerry Stackhouse in his fifth year with the program.

One issue has been how unlucky Stackhouse’s squad has been with the injury bug. Four of the Commodores’ presumed starters entering the season have missed at least one game.

In total, Vanderbilt's expected starting five has played a total of 12.5 minutes together this season, which was in the one start against Texas Tech.

Of those still healthy, Tyrin Lawrence has been the clear leader. The senior is leading the Dores in SEC play with 14.2 points per game to go along with grabbing 5.1 rebounds per contest.

The other key scorer has been Ezra Manjon, who hit the game-winning shot against A&M on Tuesday.

The Commodores will need both to have a big game here.

Tennessee continues to be a steady force in the SEC under veteran coach Rick Barnes. This counts as ninth consecutive week the Vols have been ranked in the top 25.

Meanwhile, the Volunteers have been featured in 53 straight AP Polls, the third-longest streak in America behind Houston (79) and Kansas (58). That figure is also 16 weeks longer than the previous program record of 37.

It helps when you have a veteran squad like Barnes has. However, the play of Dalton Knecht has taken the league by storm.

Knecht, who was just named to the Jersey Mike’s Naismith Trophy Player of the Year Midseason Team, is averaging 20.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 0.9 blocks per game. He's also shooting 47.8% from the floor and 40.3% from beyond the arc.

In the first meeting, Knecht finished with 32 points, so he’ll be looking forward to another shot at this Vanderbilt team.

Whenever you go to Thompson-Boling Arena, Tennessee loves to jump on you early, but the Volunteers tend to let their foot off the gas, bringing the spread into question late. I’m going to avoid that with my bet here.

My best bet is for the Vols to cover a first-half spread of 12 or better, which will get posted on game day after this article is released.

At home in SEC play, Tennessee has held the lead at halftime in four of five contests. Those advantages have been by an average scoring margin of +14.25.

These results also came against much better opposition than Vanderbilt, with the Vols already hosting Ole Miss, Florida, Alabama and South Carolina. When a similar level of opponent came in LSU, the Volunteers were up by 23 at the break.

I really struggle to see a path to success for the visitors on offense. On the road in league action, the Commodores are last in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and PPP, according to Bart Torvik.

This is the same squad that ranks in the bottom 40 in the country in first-half scoring away from home. Meanwhile, Tennessee allows the 13th-fewest points per game in the first half at home.

Once you throw in the fact that there could be a hangover after Vanderbilt’s buzzer-beater, I like the Vols to come out with a good start.

Pick: Tennessee 1H (-12 or Better)