NCAAB Odds, Pick for Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Wisconsin got a major home win over Marquette on Saturday. The Badgers held a massive rebounding margin, which helped propel them to a marquee win they can use to build a résumé for Selection Sunday.

Michigan State had a “get right” game against Georgia Southern that the Spartans sorely needed. They only have one top-100 KenPom win, so they need this one a bit more than Wisconsin.

However, I'm eyeing the over/under as opposed to taking a side in this matchup. Below, I have NCAAB odds and a pick for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State.

The Badgers rank 318th in Adjusted Tempo as they average 17 seconds per possession on defense and 19.6 seconds per possession on offense.

It also helps that they don't turn it over often, ranking 90th in offensive turnover rate. MSU ranks 93rd defensively and 95th offensively, so more often than not, the ball should remain on the offensive end.

Wisconsin rarely shoots from deep. The Badgers rank 265th in 3-point attempt rate and are only shooting 30.1% from outside the arc. Max Klesmit is shooting over 36% and John Blackwell is 7-for-14 off the bench. Otherwise, this team can't hit a 3. MSU allows a 3-point rate of 40.8% (274th in the nation), but does restrict the opposition to 27.3% shooting from downtown. Adding onto that, the Badgers only have an Open 3 Rate ranked 176th, so per Shot Quality, it is not like they are taking efficient deep shots anyways.

The Badgers may have the 19th-ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but their results have been more favorable. They are shooting 54% inside the arc, but not turning the ball over and getting to the free throw line (94th in free throw attempt rate) are pulling heavy weight there. Wisconsin ranks 191st in points per possession at the rim and 230th in Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality.

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On the other side of the ball, MSU also operates at a slow pace. The Spartans rank 314th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 17 seconds per possession on defense and 17.7 seconds per possession on offense.

MSU is particularly weak shooting from outside as the Spartans are shooting an abhorrent 26.9% from beyond the arc. They don't shoot many (30.4% 3-point attempt rate), but they aren't efficient when they do. The Spartans rank 167th in Open 3 Rate, and even though they are shooting about 53% from inside the arc, they own a Rim and 3 Rate ranked 335th. They like shooting mid-range shots, which doesn't get the job done against strong opponents. Also, Tyson Walker being questionable potentially removes an outside threat.

One area of weakness could be crashing the glass. MSU ranks 112th in offensive rebounding rate and 163rd on defense, compared to Wisconsin's ranks of 29th and 26th. Wisconsin could own the rebounding margin again. Malik Hall is questionable, so Xavier Booker, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper will have to step up on the glass to combat Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl.

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Neither team plays fast and both depend on two-pointers and free throws as a main source of points. Take this under from 131 (-110), and play it to 129 (-110).

Pick: Under 131 (Play to 129)