Wisconsin vs Penn State Odds, Pick: Back the ‘Dog

Penn State is definitely one of the weakest teams in the Big Ten. With a change in head coach, that tends to happen. The Nittany Lions could be the beneficiary of playing on their home court, which has been a pretty steady trend for home teams in the conference.

However, they may not be able to win outright against the Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-0 in conference play and could be the second-best team in the conference at the moment. That said, Penn State plays at a quicker pace and has a few spot-up shooters who can keep it within striking distance of Wisconsin.

The Badgers have a balanced offensive approach. They are shooting a touch under 35% from deep and a little under 54% from 2-point land.

Wisconsin should be able to score inside, which is the Nittany Lions' weakness on the defensive side. Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl will shoulder much of the loud inside for the Badgers. While Penn State has some comparable height to throw at Wisconsin, opponents are still shooting almost 53% on the Nittany Lions from 2-point range.

Wisconsin is a great rebounding team, especially on the defensive end, where the Badgers rank in the top 10. Penn State will not have many second chances on the glass, so they'll need to shoot well to keep this game close.

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Penn State is shooting under 30% from 3-point range as a unit. But given the volume they shoot at from the outside, Kanye Clary and D’Marco Dunn will be the two names to watch here. Clary and Dunn are both shooting over 34% for the Nittany Lions, with the former up near 40%.

The Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot almost 35% from downtown and rank 318th in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. Therefore, if Clary and Dunn can hit from outside, they can cause issues for Wisconsin.

Penn State is also solid at taking the ball to the rack. They rank in the top 70 in points per possession at the rim, while Wisconsin ranks in the top 80 defensively. Essentially, Penn State is just as good at scoring inside as Wisconsin is defending inside.

Wisconsin is clearly a contender for the Big Ten title. The Badgers have looked phenomenal in Big Ten play and have a strong mix of scorers and height in the lineup.

Penn State is not as bad as their record may indicate. Clary is a legitimate scorer from the guard position, and the Nittany Lions have enough to get by offensively to keep themselves in this game. Take Penn State at +7.5 and play that to +6.

Pick: Penn State +7.5 (Play to +6)

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