Alcorn State vs. Texas Southern Odds, Picks, Predictions: Take the Tigers in SWAC Title Game

Alcorn State vs. Texas Southern Odds, Picks, Predictions: Take the Tigers in SWAC Title Game article feature image

James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: John Walker III.

  • The Alcorn State Braves and Texas Southern Tigers play in the SWAC Championship on Saturday.
  • The Tigers enter as short favorites and hold betting value.
  • Patrick Strollo breaks down the game and dishes out his top pick below.

Alcorn State vs. Texas Southern Odds

Saturday, March 12
6 p.m. ET
Alcorn State Odds
-110o / -110u
Texas Southern Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

No. 1 seed Alcorn State and No. 2 seed Texas Southern will meet in the SWAC Tournament Championship game at 6 p.m. ET in Birmingham, Alabama, on Saturday.

The Tigers are looking to repeat as defending SWAC Tournament champions. The Braves, meanwhile, hope to take home their first SWAC title since the 2001-02 season.

This will be the third meeting between the divisional foes this year with Alcorn State owning the series, 2-0. On Jan. 15, the Braves secured the win at home in Alcorn, Mississippi, 73-72. Then on Feb. 28, Alcorn State stole a victory on the road in Houston, 75-72.

In both wins over Texas Southern, Alcorn State shot exceptionally well, especially from beyond the arc. The Braves shot 41.2% and 36.8% from 3-point land in the two contests, well in excess of their season average of 31.8%.

Will the Braves have the hot hand again? Or should we expect a reversion to the mean?

Alcorn State Braves

Alcorn State barely escaped the quarterfinal round after an overtime scare against Prairie View A&M. The Braves then went on to defeat a surging Alabama A&M squad in the semifinals.

Fifth-year senior guard Justin Thomas led the team in scoring (10.5 PPG), assists (4.19 APG) and steals (1.9 SPG) this season. Freshman forward Keondre Montgomery is a close second in offensive production with an average of 10.1 points per game.

The Braves feature the top offense in the SWAC with an AdjO of 98.9 points per 100 possessions. On defense, Alcorn State sits middle of the pack in the SWAC with an AdjD of 106.5 points per 100.

The Braves will need to shoot exceptionally well and above their season marks for a third game in a row against Texas Southern to pick up the win.

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Texas Southern Tigers

Texas Southern had its hands full with Jackson State in the opening round and followed it up with a dominant win over Grambling State to advance to today’s title game.

The Tigers are led by a trio of scorers in Joirdon Karl Nicholas (9.5 PPG), John Walker III (9.4) and Bryson Etienne (8.4). Junior guard PJ Henry has been a key contributor in the tournament, leading the Tigers in postseason scoring average.

The Tigers boast the third-best offense in the SWAC with an AdjO of 100.9 points per 100 possessions. They are very tough on the offensive glass, ranking 20th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.

Defensively, Texas Southern is tied for first in the SWAC in AdjD, allowing 100.9 points per 100 possessions. This season, the Tigers have been one of the best teams in the country in shot defense. They're good enough to sit 23rd nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage.

Look for the Texas Southern defense to pressure Alcorn State shooters as we see shooting percentages that are closer to the Braves' season averages, especially from beyond the arc.

Alcorn State vs. Texas Southern Betting Pick

Alcorn shot the lights out from downtown the last two times these schools played, notching two victories by a combined five points.

So far this postseason, we haven’t seen anywhere near that type of deep ball shooting with the Braves going 22.2% and 20% from beyond the arc in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively.

Ultimately, the Texas Southern defense will be the difference in this revenge spot. The stakes couldn’t be higher with an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. I like Texas Southern to saw one off here to go dancing.

I'm projecting Texas Southern as 3.52-point favorites.

Pick: Texas Southern -3

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