Florida State vs. Purdue College Basketball Odds & Picks: Can Seminoles Slow Down Boilermakers?
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaden Ivey
Florida State vs. Purdue Odds
|Florida State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Purdue began the season ranked No. 7 in both the AP and Coaches polls and has thus far looked as impressive as any team in the country.
Purdue has beaten Bellarmine, Indiana State, Wright State and Omaha by an average margin of 38.7 points. It also pulled off top-20 wins over North Carolina and Villanova in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament.
The Boilermakers welcome Florida State to Mackey Arena on Tuesday as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The Seminoles come in at 5-1 with wins over Tulane, Penn, Loyola Maramount, Missouri and Boston U. The Seminoles’ lone loss this season came to rival Florida by 16 on the road.
Florida State has won the two previous matchups against Purdue in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge in 2005 and 2018. However, both of those games were in Tallahassee. Will Florida State be up to the task in a hostile environment at Mackey?
In recent years, Florida State’s teams have been known for length, athleticism and defensive pressure. This year is no different as the Seminoles average height is 6-foot-7. They’re allowing 63 point sper game thus far this season and are 27th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking ninth nationally with 11.9 steals per game.
Senior forward Malik Osborne is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder at 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Freshman guard Matthew Cleveland is averaging 10.8 points and five rebounds per game. Houston transfer Caleb Mills is averaging 10.5 points while shooting 35% from 3.
Florida State only attempts 19.5 3s per game — 274th nationally — but is shooting 37.6% from downtown as a team. Guard RayQuan Evans and forward Cam’Ron Fletcher are both 40% or better from 3 while Osborne is shooting an absurd 64%.
The Seminoles struggle from the stripe, shooting 65.4% as a team. Missed free throws could prove costly against a team like Purdue.
The Boilermakers are led by their twin towers: 6-foot-10 senior forward Trevion Williams and 7-foot-4 sophomore center Zach Edey. Williams and Edey do not share many minutes together, and each has been effective this season.
Williams is averaging 13 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game on 66% shooting, while Edey is averaging 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game on 75% shooting.
Guard Jaden Ivey has emerged as a star this season after a strong summer with Team USA’s U19 team. The sophomore is averaging 15 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.5 steals while shooting 37.5% from 3.
Sharpshooter Sasha Stefanovic, who almost exclusively does his damage from 3, is averaging 13.2 points per game and shooting 47.5% from beyond the arc.
Purdue is second in scoring at 92.3 points per game. Thanks to the presence of Edey and Williams, along with freshman forward Caleb Furst, it is also dominating opponents on the glass.
The Boilermakers are 11th nationally in rebounding at 43.7 per game. They are also giving up the fourth-fewest rebounds in the country — 26.8 per game for a rebounding margin of nearly +17 per game.
Purdue is third nationally in FG% at 53.7% from the floor and fifth nationally in 3-point shooting. Its opponents are shooting 37.9% from the floor and 29.8% from 3.
Florida State vs. Purdue Betting Pick
While Florida State is 5-1, the one quality opponent it played this season — Florida — beat it by 16. It also needed overtime to escape with a one-point win over Boston U. Purdue will be a step up in class from both opponents while Mackey Arena is one of the toughest places to pull out a win.
Florida State has the length to bother Ivey with Evans, Cleveland and Anthony Polite. However, it will not have an answer for Williams or Edey. Purdue will have a big advantage on the interior both scoring-wise and on the glass.
If Florida State sends double teams at Edey and Williams, Purdue has the 3-point shooting to make the Seminoles pay.
Additionally, Florida State can struggle to score at times and ranks 108th in offensive rating. Purdue is a strong defensive team and a prolonged drought could allow the Boilermakers to open up a big lead. Purdue is the better team and will be at home, so I like the Boilermakers to cover as a double-digit favorite.