Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under (Dec. 9)
Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe, Arizona, home of Arizona State Sun Devils basketball.
- Grand Canyon takes on Arizona State in Thursday night college basketball action.
- The Sun Devils enter as favorites at -3.5, according to updated odds from DraftKings.
- Keg breaks down the game below and shares his top betting pick based on his analysis.
Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State Odds
|Grand Canyon Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Arizona State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Grand Canyon’s five-game win streak will be on the line Thursday night when they make the trip to Tempe to take on the Sun Devils. Oddly enough, the Sun Devils just broke their five-game losing streak with an upset win on the road, in overtime no less, against Pac-12 foe Oregon.
But the Antelopes five game streak has come against less than impressive competition. The best team they played was Loyola Marymount, which ranks 109th per Kenpom. Meanwhile Arizona State played five teams ranked inside the top 60 per Kenpom.
Despite being just 16 miles apart, these teams have only met once before. Last year the Sun Devils came into GCU as an eight-point favorite but barely made it out with a win at 71-70. Will things be different this year on their own court?
It’s tough to imagine so with the rough season Bobby Hurley’s had so far this year, and it gets even worse when you compare the team he had last year to this year’s roster. The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers from last year, one to the NBA and two to the transfer portal.
Not to mention it will be Holland Woods’ return to Tempe. Last year as a Sun Devil he averaged just 6.7 points and 2.2 rebounds per game while starting just 12 times. But as a fifth year grad transfer at Grand Canyon, he’s returned to the production he displayed at Portland State by averaging 13.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game while starting all eight games so far this year.
Winning five games in a row is difficult regardless of where or whom you play, but the upperclassmen have made it happen for the Antelopes. Gabe McGlothan, Taeshon Cherry, Sean Miller-Moore, and Holland Woods have been responsible for more than 50% of the team’s points over the winning streak.
Yet, Grand Canyon hasn’t been winning these games because of its elite scoring as it ranks 163rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per Kenpom and averages only 64.4 points per game. The Antelopes have won thanks to their success on the defensive end and their ability to create second chance opportunities.
The Antelopes have limited opponents to just a 43.4% Effective Field Goal Percentage, ranking 21st in the country. Teams have also shot just 38.9% from the field against Grand Canyon. They haven’t been playing offensive powerhouses, but against the best teams they’ve played in Wyoming and Loyola Marymount, the Antelopes dominated in other ways.
Grand Canyon is the 14th-best rebounding team in the country, averaging 41.9 rebounds per game. They also rank 14th in offensive rebounds per game at 12.1. Against the two best teams they’ve seen so far, they out rebounded both, while also limiting Wyoming to the fewest points the Cowboys have scored all year.
Arizona State will undoubtedly have some issues against the Antelopes as the Sun Devils average just 64.4 points per game and rank 150th in rebounds per game, but will it be enough to cover?
I feel bad for Bobby Hurley. He’s a good guy and a good coachm but it’s been a tough eight months. He lost his star player from last season to the NBA, only for him to return to college at another school. Now his team is struggling to gel while also losing one of the best returning players from last season; Marcus Bagley, to a knee injury.
However, the win over Oregon, ranked 52nd per Kenpom, was a beacon of hope for the Sun Devils, and something they can build off of in their next four games before they begin conference play. But they still have a lot of work to do because the Sun Devils rank 270th in the country in points per game, 274th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, and outside the top 250 in both two and three-point shooting.
If they want to keep the momentum from the Oregon win rolling, they will need to improve at both ends of the floor against this Grand Canyon team.
Grand Canyon vs. Arizona State Betting Pick
Arizona State ranks outside the top 200 in pace of play while Grand Canyon is outside the top 300. Both teams also limit opponents to below 49% in Effective Field Goal percentage.
The Antelopes will give the Sun Devils everything they can handle, but the Sun Devils are coming off their biggest win of the season and playing in what may be the beginning of a future crosstown rivalry.
With the pace of play and both teams’ strengths coming on defense, I’ll be taking the under. I’ll also back the Antelopes here as they are the better team that is getting too many points in what should be a close game.