College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon State vs. Tulsa: Where Does the Value Lie?
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Wayne Tinkle and Jarod Lucas.
- Oregon State travels to Oklahoma to take on Tulsa in a non-conference affair.
- Defenses should reign supreme in this one, as the Beavers scored just 50 last game while the Golden Hurricane scored 58.
- Kyle Remillard breaks down this clash and offers up his top selection.
Oregon State vs. Tulsa Odds
|Oregon State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Oregon State was one of the Cinderella stories of the 2020 college basketball season after running through the Pac-12 Tournament with just a 10-10 conference record.
The Beavers were posted at a 100-1 shot to win the conference tournament, but they didn’t stop there. Oregon State won three games in the NCAA Tournament as a 12-seed, upsetting Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola of Chicago before losing in the Elite Eight.
Mimicking that success will be a tall task after losing some key pieces from the group. Among them was guard Ethan Thompson who was the best playmaker and led the team in points and assists.
They match up against a Tulsa squad that is projected to finish in the bottom half of the American. The Golden Hurricanes finished the season 11-12 and were bounced in the first round of the AAC tournament by Tulane.
Both programs utilize a matchup zone defensively and play with a tempo that ranks outside the top-300 offensively.
Oregon State Must Replace a Star
One of the contributing factors to Oregon State’s magical late-season run was Wayne Tinkle’s morphing matchup zone.
The unorthodox defense held opponents to 30.6% from 3-point territory that ranked 30th in the nation.
The defense struggled at securing defensive rebounds and keeping opponents off the foul line. Opponents went to the free-throw line on 39% of their field goal attempts, which ranks 311th in the nation.
Offensively the Beavers will move on with life without Thompson, who averaged 15.7 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists. Junior guards Jarod Lucas and Gianni Hunt averaged a combined 17.9 points last season and will attempt to fill that void. The two were great shooters from behind the arc averaging 38% on their 268 attempts.
The frontcourt will be loaded with size between the three seniors of Warith Alatishe, Roman Silva and Maurice Calloo. Alatishe, who is the smallest of the three at 6-foot-8, led the team with 8.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per contest.
Oregon State has split its two games this season, defeating Portland State 73-64 in the opener before losing 50-60 to Iowa State. Poor shooting from the Beavers has been a constant in both games. Oregon State is shooting 25% from 3-point range and 55% from the charity stripe.
Tulsa Offense Remains M.I.A.
Tulsa’s defense is reliant on the matchup zone which has been the bread-and-butter of the program for the last few years. Last season the defense ranked 91st in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and allowed 69 points per game.
The offense has been the issue in recent years for Tulsa and that trend looks to continue this season. The Golden Hurricane shot 30% from 3-point range last season which ranks 313th in the nation. The offense ranked outside the top-200 in field goal percentage, turnovers and offensive rebounds.
The offense will be moving on without its top two playmakers from last season in Brandon Rachal and Elijah Joiner. The two guards combined for 26.3 points, 11.4 points and 6.2 assists and left a large hole to be filled in the Golden Hurricanes offense.
The Golden Hurricane have split their two games this season, defeating Northwestern State (324th) by seven before losing 58-59 to Air Force (293rd). Tulsa is shooting just 44% on two-point attempts in those games which ranks 242nd in the nation.
Though scoring will be an issue, the defense can keep this team competitive with even some top teams.
Oregon State vs. Tulsa Betting Pick
Tulsa has been dominant on the defensive end of the court and struggled offensively recently.
Last season, the Golden Hurricanes played at the 303rd tempo and held opponents to 308th in average length of possession, according to KenPom. Through two games that trend has continued, as Tulsa sits at 290th and 334th in those respective categories. The Beavers have forced turnovers on 26% of their possessions.
Oregon State follows a similar blueprint, as it plays with the 306th-fastest tempo, while its average length of possession is 316th in the country.
The Beavers have been struggling to make shots through two games, ranking outside the top 250 in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw percentage. Life won’t be easy against the matchup zone of the Golden Hurricane.
Defense will reign supreme in this matchup as both offenses will use most of the shot clock before settling for a likely contested jumper. There is value to be had in the under as this game is poised to be played in the high 50s.