College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for Texas vs. Seton Hall: Target the Over/Under
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamir Harris
- Texas travels to Seton Hall to take on the Pirates at the Prudential Center.
- This marquee matchup should feature methodical pace.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Texas vs. Seton Hall Odds
-110o / -110u
|Seton Hall Odds|
-110o / -110u
In what is clearly the best matchup of the night, the Texas Longhorns travel to Newark and will attempt to steal a marquee road win. Seton Hall has yet to lose a home game this season, so this is a tall ask for the Longhorns.
The Pirates have an early season victory over the Michigan Wolverines but fell to Ohio State in the Fort Myers Tip-Off on a neutral court. Texas lost to Gonzaga in its second game of the season but have not played any teams of note since.
Bryce Aiken is questionable for the Pirates, and since he is one of their main bucket-contributors, he would be a significant loss. Given Texas’s ability to slow teams down to its pace, the total should be the target for an edge in this game.
The Longhorns have a well-balanced approach to games, and their ability to dictate how quickly the game is played will be key. One of their noteworthy weaknesses is taking care of the basketball. Their turnover percentage is 17.1%, which ranks 84th in college hoops. Luckily for them, Seton Hall does not turn too many teams over, so Texas should be able to play out the lion’s share of their possessions without mistakes, leading to less breakaway baskets.
On the contrary, Texas turns other teams over at the third-highest clip in college basketball. Seton Hall turns the ball over about 16.3% of the time. Texas typically crashes the offensive glass consistently, but Seton Hall ranks ninth in the NCAA in limiting opponents on the offensive glass.
One potential snag to taking the under in this matchup is the Longhorns’ 3-point range. They do not take many 3-pointers, but when they do, they fall. In fact, of those who play 15 minutes or more per game, the Longhorns have five players who shoot 40% or better from beyond the arc.
Seton Hall has shown it can hang with the best teams in the country in a neutral location. The status of Aiken, though, is reason enough to stay away from the spread in this one. They do have other scorers, though, with six other players averaging at least eight points per game. This can be attributed to their Adjusted Tempo, which ranks 69th in the country, per KenPom.
That said, in games against slower-paced teams, like Michigan and Cal, the Pirates only posted 67 and 62 points, respectively. Texas is a slower-paced team than both, as it ranks 351st in Adjusted Tempo.
The Pirates have an elite defense, which is possibly the best in the Big East. They hold opponents to 17.8 seconds per possession. Pair this with Texas’s average of 18.8 seconds per possession on defense, and this should be an extremely methodical game.
The Pirates only hit 31.4% of their threes, as well. Texas does not necessarily play strong perimeter defense, so the key will be the Longhorns’ ability to lock down Myles Cale, Jamir Harris and Tray Jackson, all of whom shoot 39% or better from 3-point range.
Texas vs. Seton Hall Betting Pick
Seton Hall could win this game, but Aiken’s status leads to some reluctance when considering the spread.
That’s why I’m targeting the under instead. Texas will play its style and the Pirates will have to follow suit. These are two top-30 defenses. Seton Hall cannot hit long range shots, and Texas does not shoot too many from beyond the arc.
Take the under at 135.5 (-110) and play to 133 (-110).
Pick: Under 135.5 (-110), play to 133 (-110)
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