College Basketball Odds, Picks & Prediction for Richmond vs. Toledo (Wednesday, Nov. 30)
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Setric Millner Jr.
- Richmond and Toledo meet on Wednesday night in a matchup of two of the top mid-major programs in the country.
- Toledo is coming off a strong showing at the Gulf Coast Showcase and is a short favorite at home in this one.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting prediction.
Richmond vs. Toledo Odds
-108o / -112u
-108o / -112u
Two elite mid-major programs will square off on Wednesday night when the Richmond Spiders head to Toledo to take on the Rockets.
Both teams bounced back from a stretch of losses in their last games, with Richmond notching a big win over Temple and Toledo finishing its trip to the Gulf Coast Showcase by beating NKU 82-69.
The Richmond defense has been elite so far this season, holding opponents to just 62.3 points per game. But is it good enough to stop a Rockets offense that ranks 11th nationally in scoring?
The Richmond defense has held teams to an effective field goal percentage of just 43.8%. The Spiders have been exceptionally great at locking teams down in the second half, ranked 11th in the nation giving up just 29 points on average so far this season.
However, the same can’t be said for their offense, which averages just 68.7 points per game. As a team, the Spiders post a true shooting percentage of just 53.8%. Turnovers have also been an issue for the Spiders, who average 12.8 per game.
While they rely heavily on the 3-pointers — which account for 39.3% of their scoring — they haven’t been very good from beyond the arc. Richmond is hitting just 33.8% from 3-point range.
However, the Toledo defense is lacking, specifically when it comes to defending threes. The Rockets rank 310th among all Division-I teams, allowing opponents to make 38.3% of their shots from deep.
If the Spiders can take advantage of the weak defense on the perimeter, it could change the game for Richmond.
Toledo’s defense may be lacking, but its offense makes up for most of their issues. The Rockets’ offense posts an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%, ranking in the top 50 nationally when it comes to both 2- and 3-point shooting percentage.
Led by RayJ Dennis, Setric Millner Jr and JT Shumate, all of whom rank in the 97th percentile or higher when it comes to points per game, this offense has some serious depth. The Rockets also have a deep bench, which averages 22.3 points per game.
One of their biggest advantages, specifically against the Spiders, will be their rebounding. Toledo is posting an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.8%, and making the most of those rebounds as well averaging 13 second chance points per game.
They haven’t been great so far this year when it comes to defensive rebounding numbers, but should improve against a Richmond team ranked outside the top 150 when it comes to offensive rebounding.
The Rockets also hold a significant height advantage over the Spiders, which should only increase their advantage both off the boards as well as much needed improvement on the defensive end.
Richmond vs. Toledo Betting Pick
Even with how much the Toledo defense has struggled, I don’t think Richmond’s offense can do enough to match up with this Toledo offense. And I don’t see the Spiders’ defense slowing them down much either.
I expect the Rockets to dominate the boards and push the pace in this matchup, eventually becoming t0o much for a Spiders team that is not used to the uptick in tempo.
Back the Rockets to get the win at home.
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