Marquette vs Seton Hall Odds, Picks: Target This Total Pick
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: KC Ndefo (Seton Hall)
Marquette vs Seton Hall Odds
-105o / -115u
|Seton Hall Odds|
-105o / -115u
Marquette‘s home victory against Providence on Wednesday night served as a program milestone in the eyes of analytics.
The Golden Eagles tied their highest-ever KenPom offensive rating at 120.5 points per 100 possessions and moved to the top spot of the offensive rankings for the first time in program history.
Not since Dwyane Wade and Tom Crean in 2003 has Marquette had an offense this dynamic and efficient. Current head coach Shaka Smart has never had an offense in the KenPom top five, either.
The Golden Eagles will take their No. 1 KenPom offense on the road to Newark to take on Seton Hall on Saturday afternoon.
Seton Hall led for just six seconds during its upset win on Wednesday against Connecticut. The Pirates trailed by as many as 17 in the first half before scoring a layup in the final seconds to win the game, 67-66.
The Pirates are a short home underdog to pull off another upset, but the total is showing too much respect to these offenses. The Pirates have the interior presence to slow down the Golden Eagles at the top of their market rating.
For a team to be rated as highly in KenPom as Marquette is offensively, it’s usually reliant on unsustainable shooting variance. Often times that comes from the perimeter.
The Golden Eagles have made just 35.3% of their 3s this season, though, which is 110th in the country. ShotQuality’s expected statistics say that’s right about in line with their expected mean.
The Golden Eagles don’t turn the ball over at all and they finish around the rim at the best rate in the country. Marquette is shooting 60.2% on 2-point field goals, and no other offense in the nation is higher than 59.6%.
The Golden Eagles shoot at the rim at the sixth-highest rate in the country and make the 30th-highest percentage of those shots.
Few offenses are as good as Marquette. The unit is Gonzaga-esque, except the Golden Eagles play high-major opponents every game in the Big East. They’re elite in transition, elite at the rim, don’t turn it over and shoot enough from 3 to get by.
To slow down Marquette offensively, you need to be good in transition defensively and you need to have a good rim protector to disrupt the game and prevent layup drills.
Seton Hall has both.
KC Ndefo is one of the most under-appreciated players in the country, and his rim protection and post defense is a major reason why Seton Hall is top-20 in KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The Pirates’ defense is 24th in the nation in near proximity field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics. That’s a direct result of Ndefo in the middle, who is 34th nationally in block rate, too.
The only reason the Pirates were able to mount a comeback and slow down UConn’s offense on Wednesday was Ndefo’s defense on Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan in the middle.
He disrupts everything, even dating back to his time at Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks were an elite rim defense because of him.
Another major key is that Seton Hall is very good in transition defensively. The Pirates turn the ball over too much, but they’re in the 83rd percentile nationally in transition defense and allow 0.89 PPP.
Their pick-and-roll defense is 80th in ShotQuality allowed, too, which is a major key to guarding Marquette. The Golden Eagles run as many ball screens as any offense in the country.
Marquette vs Seton Hall Betting Pick
This is the top of the market for the Golden Eagles’ offense, which is now overvalued in the betting market.
They played Providence on Wednesday and that total opened at 153 before closing at 150.5. The game would have gone under if not for an extreme number of fouls at both ends, leading to a ton of free points in the final few minutes of the game.
The market opened this total at 145 against an elite Seton Hall defense that’s well set up to slow Marquette down enough.
There’s a correction coming for the Golden Eagles’ offense, which won’t shoot this well forever from inside the arc.
Based on ShotQuality expected scores, this offense has over-performed expectations in seven of the last eight games. I’d bet the under at 143 or better.