Providence vs UConn Odds, Picks & Prediction | Back These Defenses

Providence vs UConn Odds, Picks & Prediction | Back These Defenses article feature image

Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UConn Huskies logo

Providence vs UConn Odds

Wednesday, Feb. 22
6:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Providence Odds
-110o / -110u
UConn Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Connecticut Huskies rank sixth at KenPom and eighth in the NET Rankings, but they're still only 9-7 in the Big East.

Providence ranks 28th and 38th, respectively, but it's 12-4 in the Big East.

UConn will play host in a big game for the future outlook of the league. This would also be a massive win for the Huskies' resume, as they were left out of the committee’s top-16 teams this past week.

The last time these two met, UConn only had one loss under its belt and the Friars notched a 12-point victory at home.

Playing in Storrs, Connecticut is a different animal, but a side should not be the bet in this one.

Both of these teams are phenomenal at rebounding. They can also defend the 3-ball. Plus, Providence rarely fouls opponents.

All of these factors signal a forthcoming under.

Providence Friars

Providence only ranks 66th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric, but it can force opponents to take 2-pointers, which should come in handy against the Huskies, who hoist the 65th-most 3s in the country.

UConn holds a 41.9% 3-point attempt clip, compared to Providence’s 42nd-ranked 3-point attempt rate on defense (32.6%).

The Friars are also holding the opposition to 31.2% from 3-point range.

Even though Providence ranks 88th in Open 3 Rate (ShotQuality), it shouldn't allow many looks from distance.

Photo by CBB Analytics

The Friars are high-quality in the area of rebounding, as they rank 20th in rebounding percentage (ShotQuality). Offensively, they haul in 35.6% of boards and defensively, they're holding opponents to a 25.1% rebounding mark.

UConn is similar. On offense, the Huskies pull in 38.2% of offensive boards, ranking first in the NCAA thanks to Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson.

The Huskies have held opponents to 25.4% on defense, as well.

Overall, UConn ranks third in rebounding rate (ShotQuality), but Providence has the wherewithal through Bryce Hopkins and Co. to negate UConn’s typical edge.

Expect both teams to mainly have one shot each trip down the court.

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Connecticut Huskies

UConn definitely has the better of these two defenses. The Huskies rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and ninth in defensive eFG%, per KenPom.

They're also holding teams to 29.3% from deep and 45.6% from 2-point range.

The Huskies are even better at holding opponents to a 28.6% 3-point attempt rate, which ranks sixth in the country.

Photo by CBB Analytics

Providence, though, only ranks 323rd on offense in 3-point attempt rate. The Friars excel at getting to the basket and getting fouled.

Ed Croswell shoots over 60%, but this team prefers to draw contact. The Friars rank 37th in free-throw attempt rate, and this is one area the Huskies struggle in.

Defensively, UConn allows nearly a 40% free-throw attempt rate, which ranks 334th in the NCAA.

That said, the Huskies are at home, so they'll get the benefit of the doubt. This should help them not issue free points to the Friars, as every point matters to an under.

Otherwise, UConn ranks eighth in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. It holds opponents to the ninth-fewest points per possession at the rim, too.

This means the Huskies may foul the Friars, but they will not permit many made field goals.

Providence vs. UConn Betting Pick

These two teams have the ingredients to hold the other offense in check.

Each team ranks around the middle of the NCAA in tempo, so this is nothing of note.

However, Providence will not issue UConn many 3-point opportunities.

Both teams can steal offensive boards from the other thanks to quality Big East big man play.

Lastly, UConn may foul, but Providence will not easily score in the paint.

Take the under from 144 (-110), and play it to 142 (-110).

Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 142)

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Nick Sterling
Jul 14, 2024 UTC