Rutgers vs Indiana Odds & Prediction: Target Tuesday’s Big Ten Total
Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Indiana Hoosiers starting lineup.
Rutgers vs Indiana Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Indiana Hoosiers both had massive wins on Saturday and now will meet on Tuesday night in Bloomington, Ind.
The Scarlet Knights rank second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while Indiana ranks 41st and has done a great job with the defending the interior, where Rutgers manufactures most of their points.
The Scarlet Knights do not have an efficient offense and love to slow the game down to their pace. They are 11-8-1 to the under this season. Indiana is 9-14, but averages 18.2 seconds per possession on defense.
Since Rutgers likes to get the ball inside, Indiana will be able to keep the pace slow on defense, creating a perfect recipe for a play on the total. Let’s dig in and find the best bet for Tuesday’s Big Ten showdown.
Rutgers ranks 232nd in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 17.2 seconds per possession offensively and 18.3 seconds per possession on defense. Indiana will usually work the ball inside to Trayce Jackson-Davis, but Rutgers does allow plenty of 3-pointers, too, with a 42.3% defensive 3-point attempt percentage.
Even with the high volume, the Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to just 29% from 3-point land, ranking 12th in the nation. They are holding opponents to 43.8% overall, as well, so should be able to hold Indiana’s offense in check.
The Scarlet Knights also rank 18th in points per possession (PPP) for finishing at the rim. Since Indiana ranks 13th in high frequency post-ups (Shot Quality), the Scarlet Knights should be able to guard them closely and contest these shots.
With a star like Jackson-Davis in the post, Indiana doesn’t generate a lot of offense behind the arc, ranking 347th in 3-point attempt percentage. In all, 59.4% of Indiana’s points have come from inside the arc, but Rutgers is solid defending the paint, and that was the case in the first matchup between these teams when the Hoosiers only managed 48 points.
Even though they don’t attempt many 3-pointers, the Hoosiers generally make the most of them. They rank 63rd in open three rate, but Rutgers defends well all over the court, so generating those open looks could be a struggle for the Hoosiers.
Offensively, Rutgers scores 57% of their points inside the perimeter. They rank fourth in PPP at the rim, per Shot Quality, which is one area Indiana may struggle with. The Hoosiers rank 130th in PPP on defense at the rim, so Rutgers may carry an advantage.
That said, Rutgers is only shooting 48.8% from 2-point range. Bettors should take their chances with Jackson-Davis’ tight defense against Cliff Omoruyi. Jackson-Davis has a block rate of 10.3%, and Omoruyi has an 8.8% block rate. These two will lock each other down.
This Cliff Omoruyi sequence 😱 @wizcliff77 x @RUtgersMBB pic.twitter.com/VsOCjVrqbC
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 24, 2023
Rutgers vs Indiana Betting Pick
The two offenses in this game strictly like to score on the interior. And while Indiana is efficient inside, Jackson-Davis & Co. struggled last time out against the Rutgers, and the Scarlet Knights aren’t efficient inside to begin with.
Neither team leaves opponents open much from three-point range, so even if Indiana is yielding 32.9% from 3-point range, most points should come from 2-point range.
There is a reason these teams only combined for 101 points in the first matchup. Take the under at 135.5 and play to 134 (-110).
Pick: Under 134 or Better
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