TCU vs Kansas State Odds, Picks: Betting Guide to Top-25 Big 12 Duel
Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chuck O’Bannon Jr. (TCU)
TCU vs. Kansas State Odds
-110o / -110u
|Kansas State Odds|
-110o / -110u
TCU was unable to overcome a rough first half and fell at Oklahoma State. It fell to 17-6 overall and 6-4 in the loaded Big 12.
TCU will look to complete the season sweep of Kansas State when it travels to Manhattan for round two on Tuesday.
Kansas State is coming in on a two-game losing streak following its 69-66 loss to Texas on Saturday. The Wildcats are 18-5 and also 6-4 in the Big 12.
TCU won the first meeting, 82-68, at home. This time Kansas State is a short home favorite.
TCU will be without point guard Mike Miles Jr. again while he recovers from a hyperextended knee he suffered against Mississippi State. The Horned Frogs are 1-1 without him in the lineup.
Fortunately for TCU, it has the necessary depth to weather the storm.
Guard Damion Baugh is averaging 14 points, six rebounds and 7.5 assists in the last two games, which are slightly above his season averages.
Guard Shahada Wells has moved into the starting lineup to replace Miles, and he has been in good form, scoring in double figures in four of his last five games.
Forward Emanuel Miller is averaging 13.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game this season. He’s shooting 48.4% from 3, though he only attempts 1.6 per night.
TCU comes in averaging 77.3 points per game and is 41st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
The Horned Frogs are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country at just 29.1% from deep. However, they convert 53% of their 2-point attempts and get to the foul line 22 times per game, 29th-best nationally.
TCU is averaging just 11.9 turnovers per game, fewest in the Big 12. It’s also second in the Big 12 and 12th nationally with a +4.6 turnover margin. That is partially because of the pressure TCU can put on its opponents defensively.
TCU averages 8.7 steals and 4.9 blocks per game, ranking in the top 35 in both categories. Five Horned Frogs average over a steal per game, led by Baugh (1.9).
Forward Chuck O’Bannon averages over a steal and a block per game, while Miller and wing Micah Peavy are not far behind.
TCU is 15th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Despite the recent skid, Kansas State has still been one of, if not, the biggest surprise in college basketball this season.
First-year head coach Jerome Tang has his team 37th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Florida transfer forward Keyontae Johnson leads the team with 18.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. He has done so efficiently, shooting 52% from the field and 40% from 3.
Point guard Markquis Nowell has taken a leap in his second year with the program. He’s averaging 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per game and was recently named as one of 10 candidates for the Bob Cousy Award, given to the nation’s top point guard.
Thanks in large part to Nowell, Kansas State leads the Big 12 and is 12th nationally in assists per game.
Kansas State is a solid 3-point shooting team at 35%, though it attempts just 20 per game.
It also gets the free-throw line 22 times per game and shoots 75% at the stripe.
The Wildcats average 76.7 points per game, its highest scoring average since 2010.
Defensively, Kansas State ranks fourth in the Big 12 and 44th nationally in turnovers forced per game. Kansas State gets nearly 17 points per game off of those turnovers.
It averages 7.7 steals per game, and Nowell leads the way. He ranks second in the Big 12 and 17th nationally with 2.3 steals per evening.
Kansas State is holding opponents to 29% from 3. It should keep TCU in check from behind the arc.
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
Kansas State has lost two straight and three of its past four games. It has another tough assignment with TCU on deck, but I like its chances in this one.
Kansas State is the healthier team in this matchup, as TCU will be without Miles, and center Eddie Lampkin Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.
Kansas State has also won 11 of its past 12 games at Bramlage Coliseum. It let an 11-point lead slip away against Texas earlier this season.
To pull out a win, Kansas State will need to protect the ball, which can be an issue at times. TCU is good at forcing turnovers and the giveaways fuel its transition attack.
TCU leads the nation with 20.6 fast-break points per game, which accounts for over a quarter of its points. If Kansas State can force TCU to play in the half-court, it should be able to limit the Horned Frogs’ offense.
These teams have split the last 10 meetings in this series. As a short home favorite, I’ll back the Wildcats to break the tie.
Pick: Kansas State -3.5
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