College Basketball Odds & Picks for Alabama vs. LSU: Will Tide Win Outright?
Michael Chang/Getty Image. Pictured: JD Davison.
- After losing at home to Texas A&M, Alabama travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU.
- Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost three of four and will be looking to build some momentum before the SEC Tournament.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Alabama vs. LSU Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Alabama hits the road to wrap up the SEC season at LSU.
The Crimson Tide are coming off of perhaps their worst game all season, a home loss to Texas A&M by 16.
LSU is also slipping. The Tigers have lost three of their last four. There is no indication they will be on the upward trajectory, as it seems like some defensive regression was in the cards.
The Tigers are only 8-9 in the conference. Bama sits at 9-8, but Nate Oats should have his Tide poised to come out of the tunnel hot in this game.
Look for the Crimson Tide to cover this road number and keep a close distance to the Tigers. They could even pull off a small upset.
Alabama is unbelievably streaky. This is a team that beat Baylor, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Houston, as well as LSU once already. It also lost to A&M, Georgia, Iona, Mississippi State, and Missouri. The Tide are all over the place, but this is all the reason to take them in this game.
For one, Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country. It ranks 12th, according to KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric versus LSU’s mark of 91st.
The Tide are hot and cold from deep. As a team, they are only shooting 31.3%, but since they run at the 14th-fastest tempo in the country, per KenPom, they get plenty of shots off.
In fact, 34.7% of their scoring has come from beyond the arc. LSU may guard the perimeter well, but per ShotQuality, it ranks 242nd in open-3 rate and 355th in rim & 3 rate. The Crimson Tide excel in both of these categories, ranking 92nd and first, respectively.
Basically, this says LSU was lucky to begin the season, but teams that can get shots from outside will eventually sink them. That should be the case in this matchup.
Alabama’s main issue this season has been turnover rate — it remains at 19.4%. It doesn’t turn opponents over much, either (17.9%), on defense.
LSU thrives in this area. It turns the opposition over at a 25.1% rate, ranking fourth in the country. However, LSU has its own issue with offensive turnovers (20.5%), so the turnover discrepancy should not be as wide as most would assume. In their latest game with Arkansas, the Tigers only won that battle, 12-10.
LSU’s offense is lacking in multiple areas.
It can’t hit the 3-ball. Yes, it shoots 32.3% as a team, but only 27.4% of its total points this season have come from beyond the arc. Alabama is going to get some favorable open shots with LSU’s expected regression.
Tari Eason and Darius Days lead the way inside. This is where the majority of Tigers’ points reside. Both of these players shoot above 35% from deep, but their production lies in the post. Alabama allows opponents to shoot around 49% on the interior, so this is how the Tigers will manufacture much of their offense.
Still, trading 2s for 3s is not an advantageous move. LSU could find itself trailing at the half because of this and ease its way into the lead, transitioning to its dominant inside forces.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Pick
LSU just does not have it in the cards at the moment. Yes, Alabama is incredibly streaking and is a bit rough on defense, but it has the perfect match-up offensively by shooting 3s consistently.
Regression is going to continue rearing its head for the Tigers. Don’t be surprised if Alabama wins outright.
Pick: Alabama +5 (Play to +3)
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