Arkansas vs. Florida Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total in Play in Gainesville (Tuesday, February 22)

Arkansas vs. Florida Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total in Play in Gainesville (Tuesday, February 22) article feature image

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: JD Notae

  • Fresh off an upset against Auburn, Florida welcomes No. 18 Arkansas to Gainesville on Tuesday night.
  • The spread is short, so the better play in this matchup could be on the total.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Arkansas vs. Florida Odds

Tuesday, Feb. 22
7 p.m. ET
Arkansas Odds
-110o / -110u
Florida Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The red-hot Arkansas Razorbacks head to Gainesville, Fla., on Tuesday to pair up with a Gators team that just took down the Auburn Tigers at home.

Arkansas is a similarly fast-paced program to Auburn. The Razorbacks play with plenty of energy and look to get as many shots up as possible, while Florida likes to control the pace of play, particularly in its home gym.

In a battle of tempo with a short spread, the total could be in play instead of picking a side.

Razorbacks Like to Run

The Razorbacks have a top-15 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Head coach Eric Musselman usually has them run at an even pace on both sides of the ball. The time of each possession, both offensively and defensively, is around 16.5-16.6 seconds. This puts them in the top 25 for Adjusted Tempo.

However, Tennessee just slowed the Razorbacks down with its unbearably slow game and staunch defense. The final of that game was 58-48. The two teams only totaled 72 field goal attempts, which is comparable to the Razorbacks’ games against LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Expect a similar type of game here.

Jaylin Williams should pair up with Florida’s best player, Colin Castleton, in a battle that neutralizes a strength for both teams. Williams averages 1.3 blocks per game, while Castleton is even better at 2.7 per game. Essentially, the two should equal out and negate the other’s impact on the final score.

This matters for the Razorbacks, in particular, because they have only scored 25% of their points this season from outside the arc. Williams is their greatest internal threat, averaging nearly a double-double on the season, so it will be up to the slashers on the team to carry the weight in this game.

With Castleton down low as a strong defender, it will be hard for the Razorbacks to manufacture as many points as they are used to on the interior.

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Gators Could Have Foul Problems

Florida loves to make opponents utilize much of their shot clock. The Gators have forced the opposition to use on average 18.7 seconds per possession.

The Razorbacks live at the free throw line. In fact, they rank 26th in free throw attempts per game and 21.1% of total Razorbacks' points have come from the stripe this season. Florida ranks 175th in allowing free throw attempts, so will have to work to prevent this game from becoming a slugfest.

There could be problems for Florida on the offensive end, too. The Gators rank 42nd in free throw attempts and Arkansas is even more susceptible to foul trouble (214th in free throw attempts). If Florida is able to keep this game in a half-court style offense, then fast breaks at least will not lead to open-floor fouling.

The Gators also love to shoot the three, even though they do not do so well. They have shot 30.5% on the season, while nearly 35% of their total points have come from downtown. They will miss, and since Arkansas has held opponents to around 32% from beyond the arc, that could be the case here.

After all, it is not like Arkansas is a strong shooting team either. They just get most of their points inside the perimeter.

Arkansas vs. Florida Betting Pick

Based on the shooting trends of both of these teams and their abilities on defense, it is hard to envision this game going over the total. As long as both teams can remain disciplined, it should be a low-scoring affair.

Arkansas tends to play at the pace of its opponents, so this should be a classic 2021-22 Florida game. Expect a defensive battle, and if 3-pointers are not falling for the Gators, it could be even lower than expected.

Take the Under at 136 (-115), and play to 134.5 (-110).

Pick: Under 136 (-115), play to 134.5 (-110)

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